Premier League Odds, Picks, Betting Preview: Man City vs. Leicester City Prediction (Sept. 11)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Betting Preview: Man City vs. Leicester City Prediction (Sept. 11) article feature image
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Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Ferran Torres.

  • Leicester City faces Manchester City at King Power Stadium on Saturday (10 a.m. ET, Peacock Premium).
  • The Cityzens are favored against the Foxes, who have started the season slow and are hoping the international break will jump start their EPL season.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down his Man City vs. Leicester CIty pick below.

Leicester City vs. Man City Odds

Leicester City Odds +450
Man City Odds +160
Draw -320
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Leicester City welcomes global juggernaut Manchester City to King Power Stadium for Saturday’s featured match on an intriguing Premier League card.

It was a tale of very different stories for these sides last time out, with one club showing why it’s the consensus favorite to successfully defend its title and the other struggling to defeat arguably the worst team in the English top flight.

Suffice it to say, we were talking about manager Pep Guardiola’s mighty Cityzens in the first reference. His lads were utterly brilliant in their 5-0 thrashing of Arsenal at Emirates Stadium prior to the international break.

In contrast, many would argue the Foxes were outplayed on the road at lowly Norwich City last time out. It took a 76th-minute goal from Marc Albrighton to lift Leicester City to an unflattering 2-1 victory at Carrow Road.

Now, these perennial EPL powers meet for the second time this season, with the first outing resulting in Leicester City notching a 1-0 triumph in the FA Community Shield back in early August at Wembley Stadium.

Leicester City Seeking Answers Ahead of Showdown

To say the Foxes stumbled into the hiatus would be an understatement. After opening its campaign with a 1-0 home win against Wolves, Leicester City was beyond humbled in a 4-1 rout at the hands of West Ham United in what could easily be described as a match it would love to forget.

Trailing to the Hammers, things got even worse for the Foxes when Ayoze Pérez picked up a red card in the 40th minute, taking the visitors down to 10 the rest of the way. West Ham took advantage of the situation, scoring three goals — including two from Michail Antonio — in the win at London Stadium.

Then, things didn’t get any better on the road at Norwich City. Despite the fact the Canaries had suffered blowout losses against Liverpool (3-0) and Manchester City (5-0), they finished with a 1.6-1.3 edge in expected goals and probably deserved a point for their spirited effort.

Now, Leicester City faces a team it has had some relative success against of late, but will do so coming off two less-than-spectacular performances.

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Opening Loss Doesn’t Derail Mighty Manchester City

Following a surprising 1-0 loss against Tottenham Hotspur to start its title defense, the Cityzens clearly didn’t carry any sort of hangover into their next two matches prior to the break.

Like any champion, Manchester City responded in emphatic fashion with back-to-back 5-0 routs of Norwich City and a floundering Arsenal side. What has been most impressive in that 10-goal outburst over 180 minutes of action is the fact the Cityzens are getting goals from everywhere. Ferran Torres leads the way with two goals, both of which came in the first half against Arsenal.

Always boasting crooked advanced metrics, the Cityzens.

Manchester City will be missing a few key players, including Ederson and Gabriel Jesus (FIFA-imposed suspension), and American international goalkeeper Zack Steffen (positive COVID-19 test) among those sidelined.

However, Guardiola should have Kevin De Bruyne back at his disposal, albeit in a likely reserve role, but Phil Foden seems to be a week away from rejoining the group at full strength.

Betting Analysis & Picks

The offensive numbers entering this tussle don’t lie. The Cityzens have scored at least two goals in five of their last six league affairs. There have also been at least three goals scored in six of each club’s last seven EPL fixtures.

Then throw in the fact Guardiola and his men have a little redemption on their minds after that Community Shield defeat, and we could see some serious fireworks at King Power Stadium.

For those reasons, I’m backing the total going over 2.5 goals at -130 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. My projections have this number closer to the -140 to -145 range, which you can actually find at other books. I just feel like I’m getting way too much value at the current odds when incorporating the historical numbers between these combatants.

Adding to my cautious optimism tied to this angle is the fact fellow soccer handicapper BJ Cunningham projected 2.74 xG for this match in his weekly projections, which just adds to my cautious optimism with this pick.

I’m also tacking on both teams to score at -120 odds as a secondary selection. Leicester City has scored at least once in its first three matches, which includes a goal while down a man in that loss to West Ham. As for Manchester City? Well, the stat sheets speak for themselves.

Finally, I like to throw in a player prop for those who enjoy those fun wagers. Getting +170 odds on Torres to score anytime seems about right, so I think it’s worth sprinkling a little something on the Spanish international to add another goal to his account.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-130) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-120)

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