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Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Lille & PSG (Feb. 6)

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Lille & PSG (Feb. 6) article feature image
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Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappe.

Ligue 1 is back in action after the busy international break, with a loaded schedule that includes 10 games and every team playing matches.

Paris Saint-Germain, Nice and Marseille all feature and squads will be bolstered by the return of a number of players that were featuring in the Africa Cup of Nations tournament.

As it stands, PSG has a stranglehold on the title race, but Champions League and relegation positions are still very much in the balance. That means there are a number of important games across the league as we head into the business end of the season.

Here is where I see value in the weekend slate.

Ligue 1 Best Bets

Lorient vs. Lens

Lorient Odds +235
Lens Odds +115
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Lorient plays host to Lens in an early Sunday morning game, with Les Merlus in desperate need of points.

Sitting 19th in the table, things don’t look great for Lorient, but there’s certainly an escape path. Clermont Foot is in 15th place with 21 points, just four points clear of Lorient as it stands. Lens is in the middle of the standings in ninth place with 33 points.

Despite being one of the worst teams in the French top flight, Lorient performs far better at home, as it would sit in 14th place if there was a table only for home results. With three wins, four draws and three losses, Les Merlus haven’t actually been that bad at the Stade du Moustoir.

On the other side, Lens has a -0.03 xG/game differential on the road. Despite being a good team away from home, there’s a natural disadvantage there and when you look at Lorient’s results at home, I have to take the chance that it can get a point or more.

Pick: Lorient +0.5 (-120)

Strasbourg vs. Nantes

Strasbourg Odds -125
Nates Odds +350
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -130)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Nantes travels to the Meinau Stadium for a fixture with Strasbourg, a team currently sitting just outside of a Champions League position.

Both squads will be near full strength when they take the pitch, as Maxime Le Marchand, Habib Diallo and Jean-Charles Castelleto are likely to be the only missing players from the teams.

There are a couple of indicators that point me toward the total. Not only does Strasbourg have a fairly prolific offense that generates 1.75 xG/game at home, it also converts its scoring chances at the highest rate in the league.

Nantes is near the bottom of the league in xG/game on the road with 1.03 xG/game, but Strasbourg also concedes 1.22 xG/game at home, which is average for the league.

With the total going over the number at plus money, I like the value you can get considering these teams’ advanced metrics.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)

Lille vs. PSG

Lille Odds +290
PSG Odds -115
Draw +295
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
How To Watch beIN SPORT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Les Dogues play host to the league leaders in what projects to be one of the most entertaining matchups of the weekend.

Lille is currently in 11th place in Ligue 1, but only eight points out of Champions League contention. Assuming the club isn’t able to win the UCL this year, returning back to the most elite competition in Europe will be vital to Lille’s long-term success.

It’ll be facing a PSG team missing some key players but is still rather strong. Neymar, Sergio Ramos and Keylor Navas will be out due to injury, while Abdou Diallo and Idrissa Gueye are preparing for the AFCON final with Senegal.

While it hasn’t been a premier Ligue 1 side thus far, Lille’s 0.28 xG/game home edge is only marginally worse than PSG’s 0.44/game split on the road. The Parisians have also drawn their last three road games, while Lille has won two of its last three contests at the Stade Pierre Mauroy.

With the absences PSG is facing, that’s enough for me to pull the trigger on the spread in this matchup.

Pick: Lille +0.5 (-110)

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