Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Marseille vs. Monaco (Saturday, Dec. 12)

Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Marseille vs. Monaco (Saturday, Dec. 12) article feature image
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Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images. Pictured: Wissam Ben Yedder

Marseille vs. Monaco Odds

Marseille odds +175 [Bet Now]
Monaco odds +140 [Bet Now]
Draw +250 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 2.5 (-124/+100) [Bet Now]
Time Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
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There’s plenty of action across Europe this weekend but one of the biggest matches on the docket will take place on France’s Southern Coast, as Monaco takes on Marseille.

Marseille are currently sitting in fourth-place in Ligue 1, but a win over Monaco could see them jump to the second place with games in hand on first-place PSG. Les Olympiens had a disappointing campaign in the Champions League, finishing last in Group C behind Man City, Porto and Olympiacos, but they’ve been on fire in Ligue 1 with five wins on the spin.

Monaco are one point behind Marseille and are looking to return to European competition after a couple of down years. It’s been a tale of two seasons for Les Monégasques as they’ve been great at home, but terrible on the road. Monaco are also in good form, with four wins from their last five matches.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Marseille

Marseille are one of the most overrated teams in Europe. They finished second in Ligue 1 in 2019/20 but their +4.4 expected goal differential (xGD) was only fifth-best in France’s top flight. Things have not changed.

Les Olympiens may be in the hunt for the Ligue 1 title, but they have a -0.11 xGD and, based Understat’s expected points metric, Marseille are over-performing by almost nine points.

Will regression finally come for Marseille when they line up against one of the best attacking teams in France on Saturday?

Monaco

Monaco was a lot better than results showed last season and the same can be said about the start to the 2020/21 campaign. Monaco finished with the third-best expected goal differential in Ligue 1 in 2019/20 and they are in that same spot this season with a +11.24 xGD. Monaco’s offense has been on song over the last six matches with an average xG of 2.24 per 90 minutes.

Outside of PSG, matches involving Monaco have seen the most expected goals at 3.17 per match over the last two seasons. This type of free-flowing soccer has led to 68% of Monaco’s matches going over 2.5 goals in that span.

In fact, nine of the last 10 matches between Marseille and Monaco have featured at least three goals.

Projections and Pick

Anytime Monaco take to the pitch, the goals seem to follow and I don’t think that trend will stop here as Marseille are due for some negative regression on defense.

Since I have 3.35 goals projected for this match, I think there is value on Over 2.5 goals at -124.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-124)

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