Liverpool vs Man United Odds, Pick | Premier League Betting Preview (Mar. 5)
James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Marcus Rashford.
Liverpool vs Man United Odds
Man United Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-152 / +125)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-175 / +135)|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Two fierce rivals meet at Anfield for a massive match, as Liverpool take on Manchester United.
Liverpool are starting to get back to their winning ways, at least in the Premier League. After their 5-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League, the Reds’ full focus must be on the Premier League and trying to close the gap on the top four. To do so, three points against one of the teams currently sitting inside the top four would be absolutely massive.
Manchester United seem unstoppable at the moment. They’re coming off of dethroning Barcelona in the Europa League, winning the League Cup over Newcastle and recently progressing to the FA Cup quarterfinals. They are in the middle of a massive fixture pile up that has to be wearing on them, but once again it’s another huge match and huge test for Erik Ten Hag’s side.
Liverpool Building on One End of The Pitch
Liverpool finally put in back-to-back good defensive performance against Crystal Palace and Wolves. However, the problem that exists for Liverpool in this match is Klopp needs to employ the 4-5-1 mid-block and allow Manchester United to have the ball.
However, Klopp is stubborn and is likely going to play right into Ten Hag’s hands. United will set up in a low block and then counter Liverpool’s terrible transition defense that is still without Thiago.
When Liverpool’s defense has had to face the big six it hasn’t gone well. In five matches against the big six they have conceded 8.3 xG. They are also coming off of giving up five goals against Real Madrid, who countered them to perfection in the Champions League.
With that being said, the Liverpool offense is still creating a ton of high quality chances. They generated 2.6 xG against Wolves on Wednesday and since we’ve come back from the World Cup break, Liverpool are averaging 1.99 xG per match. Diogo Jota’s return is also a massive boost.
Man United in Rich Vein of Form
This match actually sets up perfectly for Manchester United, who have shown that they are at their best when the game becomes transitional.
Against Newcastle, who are one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, United allowed them to tilt the field on them at 65.0%, conceded 61.2% possession and only had a 65.1% build-up completion percentage.
Man Utd 2 : 0 Newcastle
▪ xG: 0.81 – 0.72
▪ xThreat: 0.84 – 1.29
▪ Possession: 38.8% – 61.2%
▪ Field Tilt: 35.0% – 65.0%
▪ Def Line Height: 36.5 – 40.9 pic.twitter.com/1BjoO57iOG
— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) February 26, 2023
They should be just as effective in transition in this type of encounter as they were against Barcelona in the Europa League, where they created over 3 xG across the two legs. The issue that Ten Hag has run into is fixture congestion
This is going to be Manchester United’s 21st match since we came back from the World Cup break, which was only 74 days ago. He was finally able to rotate some guys in the FA Cup on Wednesday, but the amount of matches that the same starting XI has had to play is massive.
Despite that, the Manchester United offense has run hot since the World Cup break, and they are creating a ton of chances. In their last 10 Premier League matches, Manchester United have created 20.1 xG and have created 14 big scoring chances in the process.
Liverpool vs Man United Pick
This match sets up perfectly for Manchester United to sit deep and counter Liverpool like they’ve done to pretty much every opponent since we’ve come back from the World Cup break.
Don’t count out the Liverpool offense in this match, however, despite their poor form overall this season. The Reds are still top three in the Premier League in npxG per 90 minutes, shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances, while also being No. 1 in England in xThreat.
However, they’ve been very poor in transition defense, which is a massive problem going up against Manchester United.
I have 3.7 expected goals projected for this match, and I strongly like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (+104)
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