Luton Town vs Manchester United Odds & Pick: Target Sunday’s Total
(Photo by Robbie Stephenson/PA Images via Getty Images). Pictured: Carlton Morris.
Luton Town vs Manchester United Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +300 |
| Man United Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Manchester United look to make it four straight wins when it travels to Kenilworth Road to take on Luton Town.
Luton Town is battling to get out of the relegation zone and has picked up some key points recently against Brighton and Newcastle. They dropped all three points at home last time out in a key match against Sheffield United, so they will be desperate to get things back on track.
Manchester United seemingly has everything heading in the right direction after three straight wins against Wolves, West Ham and Aston Villa. With that being said, they had a negative combined expected goal differential in those three matches, so they are on a bit of a lucky run at the moment and it could catch up with them here.
Read on for my Luton Town vs Man United prediction.
Luton Town
Luton Town has gone with a really aggressive approach out of possession its last few matches and it's resulted in some pretty crazy matches.
Their last three matches have seen 16 goals, with Luton scoring nine of them. Rob Edwards has basically decided their best method of approach is to press their opponents high and turn it into a back-and-forth match because they are not good enough sitting in a passive low block.
My guess is they will go with that same approach here against Manchester United. Luton Town is one of the worst teams in the Premier League at defending the middle of the pitch, so it's no surprise that since the beginning of November, they are allowing 2.25 xG per 90 minutes and have conceded 19 big scoring chances in 13 matches.
The only other method that Luton Town has had to score goals is off corners and crosses.
They have attempted the most crosses in the Premier League and have the second-highest xG per set piece off corners. The reason for that is that they like to overload the back post against the opponents' smaller fullbacks, which nobody has really been able to stop.
And with Manchester United being average defending set pieces, don't be surprised if you see a set-piece goal from the Hatters.
Manchester United
The match against Aston Villa truly encapsulated how flawed Manchester United is out of possession. Basically, all of Aston Villa’s chances came when they were playing in transition. Why were they playing in transition in the first place? It comes down to Erik Ten Hag’s philosophy.
Manchester United has been really good at forcing high turnovers this season and Ten Hag sees it as a way to create offense, but that is it. He uses his attacking players to press the first phase of build-up but has his defensive line back because he doesn’t want to get beat over the top.
What that does is leave Manchester United’s midfield — which doesn’t have a lot of ball-winning to begin with — incredibly exposed to transition attacks. There are countless times when teams are running with numbers at Manchester United’s backline and creating chances off those transition opportunities, and Luton Town is going to be no different.
You may be shocked to hear this, but Manchester United has allowed the most set-piece attempts this season at 115. What that tells me is they’ve been very poor defending in their own final third, giving away a lot of fouls and corners.
They’ve been very average defending corners and crosses overall this season, so do not be surprised to see Luton Town create a lot of chances in this match.
Now, while Manchester United has been terrible out of possession, its offense has actually been pretty good recently, scoring nine goals in its last three matches. They should be able to create plenty of chances against a Luton Town defense that has conceded the most big scoring chances in the Premier League.
Luton Town vs Man United
Prediction
Luton Town wants to play very back and forth. They've identified that playing aggressively out of possession, creating high turnovers and being effective on set pieces is their best method of staying up.
It's worked for them lately, pulling them out of the relegation zone by one point over Everton, so it's hard to argue with Edwards given the squad he has compared to the rest of the Premier League.
With how flawed Manchester United is out of possession, the lack of ball-winning they have in the middle of the pitch and the injuries across their back line, it's no surprise to see their defense has also been incredibly poor away from home. Overall this season, they are allowing 1.75 expected goals per 90 minutes, so Luton Town will have its chances in this match.
I have 3.65 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Over 3 goals at -115.
Pick: Over 3 Goals (-115 via Bet365)
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