Man United vs Brentford Odds, Pick: Red Devils Overvalued in Premier League

Man United vs Brentford Odds, Pick: Red Devils Overvalued in Premier League article feature image

Daniel Chesterton/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney of Brentford.

Man United vs Brentford Odds

Wednesday, April 5
3 p.m. ET

Man United Odds


Brentford Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-135 / +105)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-135 / +105)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Manchester United look to rebound from their loss to Newcastle and stay inside the top four when they host Brentford at Old Trafford.

Sunday was one of the worst performances of Manchester United's season. They had no answer for Newcastle's high press and really struggled to build out from the back. Not having Casemiro in the lineup is a massive loss for the Red Devils and Sunday was a perfect example of what their squad looks like without him. They'll be without him again on Wednesday as they look to get revenge from the drubbing Brentford put on them at the beginning of the season.

Brentford almost got a key victory in their quest for European football, but a late penalty secured a 3-3 draw with Brighton in one of the most thrilling matches of the Premier League season. The Bees dismantled Manchester United at the Brentford Community Stadium in August and have been one of the best teams in the Premier League versus the Big Six. Will Thomas Frank's side get another famous result on Wednesday?

Man United Struggling to Maintain a High Level

The Red Devils were destroyed on Sunday at Newcastle, conceding 3.7 xG and only mustering three shots before the 70th minute.

They are once again going to be without Casemiro. With him in the lineup, Manchester United are only allowing 1.11 xG per 90 minutes. Without him, they’re allowing 1.75. The reason he is so important for them is his ability to defend in transition, which is where Manchester United are at their best.

As we saw on Sunday, Manchester United are well below average at building out of the back. David de Gea is not great with the ball at his feet and Manchester United  attack much better when the match becomes transitional. Their current midfield pairing is providing almost nothing in build up play.

McTominay and Sabitzer combined contributed less ball progression via pass than Bruno Guimarães

— markstats (@markrstats) April 2, 2023

The problem in this match is if Manchester United want this match to become transitional, that is where Brentford are at their best. So, if they decide to be more possession-based and build out from the back, Brentford are a top-10 pressing team by PPDA and caused all sorts of problems in the previous meeting.

So, Manchester United are in a real tactical quandary that I am not sure they're going to be able to solve.

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Brentford Have Tactical edge

If Brentford were able to be effective in transition and effective on set pieces against Brighton, who's to say they aren’t able to do that against a Casemiro-less Manchester United? 

The Bees have historically been one of the best teams against the big six, and this season they are the only team in the Premier League to have a positive xG against the that group of teams at +0.8.

A lot has changed since August, but this is the reverse fixture of one of Brentford’s most famous victories. They smashed Manchester United 4-0 at the Brentford Community Stadium. The Bees did everything perfectly in that game and Manchester United struggled in build up play.

Another positive is that the splits for Brentford away versus at home aren’t as drastic as they were last season. This season, they’re +5 xGD at home versus -1 xGD on the road. Plus, they’ve drawn Arsenal and beaten Manchester City on the road this season.

Man United vs Brentford Pick

Brentford pose a ton of tactical problems for Manchester United in this match with their ability to press, sit deep in a compact low block move on the counter.

Missing Casemiro in the lineup is an extremely massive loss for what the Red Devils want to do on the pitch. Sabitzer and McTominay are providing nothing in build up play, so Manchester United's only choice is to make this match transitional, without their best transition defender against one of the best transition offenses in the Premier League.

Additionally, it should be noted that a lot of Manchester United’s success this season has come versus the bottom half of the table. Against the top 10 teams in the Premier League, Manchester United have a -5.8 xGD.

I only have Manchester United projected as a +101 favorite, so I like the value on the Bees +0.5 at +130.

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+130) 

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