MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Sunday Best Bets, Featuring Atlanta United vs. New England Revolution (May 15)

The 11th week of the Major League Soccer season comes to a close Sunday with a nationally televised doubleheader on ESPN taking center stage.

In the opener, Atlanta United and New England look for a result that could send a message to the rest of the Eastern Conference.

That match is followed by Seattle, the new CONCACAF Champions League winner, trying to begin its seemingly inevitable climb back up the Western Conference table after a slow start with a visit from Minnesota United.

So, here are our best bets for the final two MLS games on the weekend card.

Atlanta vs. New England

Death, taxes and Bruce Arena throwing caution to the wind on the road.

Those are the constants New England fans have learned since Arena took the reins in 2019 and particularly over the last two seasons. Arena's willingness to play openly away from Gillette Stadium has led to some almost predictably wide-open contests.

All five Revolution away games in this year have featured at least four goals after nine of 17 also hit that trend the season before. And while New England is bound to play some lower scoring away matches eventually, personnel issues for both teams point to another open contest.

Atlanta has endured season-ending injuries to defensive midfielder Osvaldo Alonso (ACL), goalkeeper Brad Guzan (Achilles) and defender Miles Robinson (Achilles) that have created lineup issues on the back.

And New England could welcome back Gustavo Bou from an upper leg injury. He scored 15 goals in MLS action a season ago to go with Adam Buksa and his 16 goals, but has made only two appearances this season.

Atlanta has also played its higher-scoring matches at home, with the total hitting four or more on three of five occasions.

That said, I like backing the total clearing 2.5 goals as my top pick. However, I like selling a goal and playing the total over 3.5 goals even more.

Yes, it's still a small sample size this season, but at +150 odds there is a 40% implied probability for a trend that has hit on seven of nine occasions between Atlanta's home games and New England's away encounters.

Quillen's Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+150)

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Seattle vs. Minnesota

The Sounders have only earned two wins so far in league play, but who can blame them with all their distractions?

Brian Schmetzer's men were busy becoming the first MLS side in history to win the CCL crown. They accomplished that feat May 4 when they closed their final series with a 3-0 victory over Liga MX side Pumas UNAM.

In the aftermath, the Sounders suffered a 2-0 road defeat against FC Dallas in MLS play and crashed out of the U.S. Open Cup on penalties following a 2-2 draw with the San Jose Earthquakes. Yet, in both games, Schmetzer fielded a heavily rotated squad that allowed his veterans a chance to regroup.

That will end here when Minnesota comes to town hoping to reverse some awful history against its host.

The worst moment came in 2020, when the Loons gave up a two-goal lead in a 3-2 defeat in the Western Conference final. However, it's rarely been better in the regular season. The Sounders have won all five previous meetings in Seattle. And this particular Minnesota team isn't posing much threat on the road, generating just 2.8 xG and two goals in four matches.

Minnesota also saw Wednesday's scheduled Open Cup match suspended due to inclement weather, then restarted on Thursday. That only adds to the difficulty of facing a veteran group looking to prove to the rest of MLS that it'll be around again this postseason.

And don't pay attention to the Sounders' metrics. They're largely meaningless given how much focus they gave the CCL earlier this year. Instead, just look at the rosters and trust Seattle will play like an elite team and bet the club to win at -140 odds and a 58.3% probability.

Pick: Seattle ML (-140)