MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Minnesota United vs. Portland Timbers Betting Preview (Saturday, July 30)
Simon Sturzaker/Getty Images. Pictured: Portland Timbers fans at Providence Park.
Minnesota vs. Portland Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +120)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ABC | fuboTV|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Kicking off Saturday’s slate in Major League Soccer, Minnesota United hosts Portland in a huge Western Conference battle airing live on the ABC network.
The Loons enter as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning five out of their last six contests to move into third place in the standings.
Meanwhile, the Timbers are also in great form, coming into the match on an unbeaten run of seven to move into playoff contention.
This should be a great fixture between clubs playing very well, but I think this is an opportunity to back the road team as a live underdog.
Manager Adrian Heath has his squad playing its best right now. However, you have to wonder if this is due to the quality of opponents it has faced as of late.
Over this great run, United has played four teams outside the current playoff places in Vancouver, Houston, D.C. United and Sporting Kansas City.
There were two strong victories against the Los Angeles Galaxy and Real Salt Lake, but the Timbers should be the toughest opponents for the Loons.
By The Numbers
- +0.3 — During the unbeaten streak, Minnesota has only posted a +0.3 xGDiff, according to fbref.com.
- 1 — United has only beaten one team at home this season (Real Salt Lake) that currently holds a playoff spot.
Portland also enters the match during its best stretch of the campaign, with the team’s last loss coming on May 28.
The Timbers have also had a softer schedule during this run, but have shown they can pick up results away from home against top sides this season.
On the road, Portland has avoided losing against Los Angeles FC, the New York Red Bulls, the LA Galaxy, Nashville and Seattle.
By The Numbers
- +3.7 — The Timbers own a +3.7 xGDiff during this unbeaten run.
- 2 — Away from home, Portland has only failed to score in a pair of games. The last one coming back in April this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When I look at the odds for this match, the bookmakers have favored the hosts too much in this game. So, that has led me to backing Portland getting +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at +100 odds via BetMGM as my best bet.
I mentioned the teams the Timbers have earned points against on the road and how they always seem to find a goal, which bodes well against an opponent that has allowed 1.23 xG per 90 minutes at home this season.
Only two clubs have more road draws than Portland, so I think this is another opportunity for last season’s runners-up to secure another away result.
The Pick: Portland +0.5 (+100)