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MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes Betting Preview (July 9)

MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes Betting Preview (July 9) article feature image
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Angel Marchini/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC players Domenico Criscito, left, and Lorenzo Insigne watch a match at BMO Field.

Toronto FC vs. San Jose Odds

Toronto FC Odds +115
San Jose Odds +195
Draw +270
Over/Under 3.5 (+130 / -185)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In a match featuring teams with two of the worst defenses in Major League Soccer, San Jose makes the long trip to Canada to face Toronto FC in Saturday’s clash at BMO Field.

Both clubs find themselves outside of the playoff picture coming into the game, with the Canadian club sitting in 12th place in the Eastern Conference on 18 points.

Meanwhile, the Earthquakes enter the fixture on equal points and find themselves eight points out the final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings.

These sides have allowed the most goals in the league, which could present an opportunity for one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.

Toronto FC

This match was supposed to be the debut of new signing Lorenzo Insigne. However, it was announced earlier this week by the club that the Italian star would miss the game due to a calf injury.

Once you add in the fact that key playmaker Alejandro Pozuelo was traded to Inter Miami, the Reds will be without a couple of key pieces in a must-win home match.

Jesús Jiménez will be the one the team relies upon at this time, as he leads the Toronto FC with eight goals to go along with three assists.

By The Numbers

  • 36.8 — Toronto has allowed the most expected goals in MLS this season, according to fbref.com.
  • 0 — Manager Bob Bradley’s team has failed to claim a single clean sheet.
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San Jose Earthquakes

If there is any hope of climbing into a playoff spot, the Earthquakes have to improve their play away from home.

San Jose is tied with Colorado for lowest road points on the season (two) via six losses and two draws.

One key player that can help with those problems is striker Jeremy Ebobisse, who is one of six players in MLS to have at least nine league goals.

By The Numbers

  • 2.06 — The Earthquakes have allowed an average of more than two expected goals per match away from home.
  • 9 — San Jose is tied with the New England Revolution for the most games (nine) in the league to clear 3.5 goals.

BJ Cunningham’s MLS Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Picks

There are many ways to attack this game that should feature goals, but my best bet is for the total to fly over 3.5 goals at +130 odds.

For all of the poor defending metrics above, you also could look into the Anytime Goalscorer market by backing Jiménez or Ebobisse at great prices.

You also could use the “Yes” on Both Teams to Score (-200) as a great parlay piece, where you could pair it with the New York City FC vs. New England Revolution match.

I’m keeping my top wager simple with betting the total, but these terrible defenses provide other great options to cash winning tickets.

The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+130)

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