MLS Playoffs Betting Odds & Pick: Seattle Sounders vs. Minnesota United (Monday, Dec. 7)

Seattle Sounders vs. Minnesota United

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We have made it to the Conference Finals in the MLS playoffs. Minnesota United will travel to Seattle to face off against the Sounders for a ticket to MLS Cup.

I am beyond excited for this Monday night fixture. Seattle is the favorite, yet again, and will be tough to beat on its home ground, but Minnesota is red hot and will give the Sounders all they can handle. Let's go.

Seattle Sounders FC

Seattle was my No. 1 pick to win the MLS playoffs when they began a few weeks ago, and I really don't see that changing now.

The Sounders seem to kick it into an extra gear in the postseason under manager Brian Schmetzer. Couple that with having home-field advantage, and you have to make them favorites to lift the cup.

If Seattle wins on Monday night, that would make it four MLS Cup appearances in the past five years for the club. The Sounders have been the steadiest and most consistent team in the MLS this season and in recent years, so it would be appropriate if they did advance.

What I like the most about this team is that it can win in multiple ways. In the Sounders' 3-1 victory over LAFC in the first round, it was more of an open and attacking game.

The 1-0 victory over Dallas in the conference semifinals was very tactical and physical, a game with very few chances. The Sounders still edged ahead, albeit narrowly. The expected goal (xG) total was narrowly in their favor at 1.1-0.7, and that tells us the story of the game. Dallas sat in and focused on counter attacks while trying to limit Seattle's chances.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

While that might make Minnesota feel good about its chances, Seattle just finds ways to win. Schmetzer has his side playing well defensively, as well as going forward, which will make them tough to beat.

Since Minnesota began play in MLS in 2017, Seattle has won five of these clubs' six matchups with one draw. That will give the Sounders even more confidence against the Loons.

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Minnesota United FC

I have a 20-1 ticket on the Loons to lift the cup, and I think they can definitely hang with Seattle.

The positive: Minnesota is unbeaten in its last 10 matches. The negatives: The Loons are on shorter rest and have a much more inexperienced squad. Minnesota's match with Sporting KC was pushed back two days, and now it has to travel to the Pacific Northwest. We will see if the spotlight and pressure is too much for the Loons. We know it won't be for Seattle.

Minnesota's 3-0 win over Colorado in the first round was a good result in a match that I expected them to win easily. However, the 3-0 win over Kansas City was really impressive. I backed the Loons to take it to extra time and advance, but I did not expect a blowout like that.

The interesting part is that the xG totals were about even in both matches (2.5-2.6, 1.4-1.6). That means the clean sheets Minnesota kept may have been slightly fortunate, but their opponents missed chances and Loons goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair is playing phenomenally right now.

Offensively, Minnesota is really clicking. Emanuel Reynoso is the conductor on the pitch and owned both Colorado and Kansas City's midfields. He is their MVP, in my opinion, and will need to play well for them to beat Seattle. Winger Kevin Molino is on fire, as well, scoring two goals in each of Minnesota's playoff wins.

Betting Analysis

I have to say it, but this is a bit of a tough call to make. Minnesota is clicking and playing very well, but it's going to be really tough to beat the Sounders in Seattle. I have championship futures on both clubs, so that doesn’t make predicting the outcome any easier.

Given Minnesota's form and quality in its attacking third, I would expect a relatively open game. I don't see the Loons packing it in like Dallas did against in Seattle. Because of that, I do like over 2.75 goals at -113.

As good of a story as Minnesota making it to MLS Cup would be, I have to side with Seattle in this one on its moneyline at -143.

Picks: Seattle ML -143 | Over 2.75 goals -113 up to -125