MLS Week 7 Betting Odds, Preview: Buying Low on Struggling Squads
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Timbers’ Diego Valeri
- The MLS season is rolling along and Week 7's action is highlighted by Seattle-Toronto FC, LA Galaxy-Philadelphia and LAFC-FC Cincinnati.
- We've broken down the weekend's biggest line moves and lopsided bets to find the best plays to make.
MLS Week 6 was extremely balanced based on the moneyline results:
- Home Teams: 5 wins (-1.4 units)
- Road Teams: 3 wins (+0.2 u)
- Draws: 3 wins (+0.4 u)
On the season, away teams still have the overall advantage (+7.05 u) while home teams (-3.95 u) and draws (-1.05) have both resulted in net losses.
Scoring has started hot with 3-plus goals in 34-of-63 (53.97%) matches and the betting market has finally adjusted. For this weekend’s action, 9-of-12 (75%) matches have a listed over/under at 3 goals.
I’m most looking forward to FC Cincinnati-LAFC, Philadelphia-LA Galaxy and LA Galaxy-Philadelphia, but there’s plenty of betting value up and down the board for Week 7.
MLS Week 7 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Biggest Line Moves
- Houston (-150 to -200) vs. San Jose
- LAFC (-250 to -285) vs. FC Cincinnati
- Portland (+440 to +360) at FC Dallas
- Colorado (+200 to +160) vs. D.C. United
The Dynamo have rolled to three straight MLS victories and bettors have been all over them to beat the San Jose Earthquakes, driving their odds up to -200 from -150.
LAFC are also attracting smart money to increase the line from -250 to -285 against FC Cincinnati. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone following MLS since LAFC are the clear Cup favorites and have outscored opponents 19-5 to start an undefeated season.
The Timbers are the biggest underdogs on this list, improving from +440 to +360 despite not winning a game yet this season. They’ve been outscored 8-1 across three straight losses and were just embarrassed at San Jose, 3-0.
So what do sharp bettors see in Portland to warrant a wager at FC Dallas?
There’s no denying the Timbers’ poor form, but the roster is still extremely talented and the start of the season was always going to be tough with 12 consecutive road matches. They should be underdogs in Saturday’s match, but nowhere near the odds they opened at, and there’s still a little bit of value left.
Make sure to shop around the betting market because you’ll definitely be able to find a price still lurking in the +400 range.
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Lopsided Public Bets
- 82% on Minnesota United (-110) vs. NYC FC
- 71% on Real Salt Lake (-120) vs. Orlando City
- 70% on Seattle (-120) vs. Toronto FC
The three most popular public bets so far are Western Conference clubs playing Eastern Conference foes at home.
Minnesota United got back to winning ways last week at New York Red Bulls after dropping two straight contests, and United will finally open their home schedule on Saturday against struggling NYC FC.
One of the preseason favorites, NYC FC have yet to win a match this season, accumulating four draws and one loss along the way. Despite a rough start, the market seems to be overreacting to early results and there’s certainly value on the road side to pick up their first victory.
Real Salt Lake and Seattle are the two other clubs receiving lopsided public support, and they happened to play each other last weekend in a tight 1-0 affair. I would be wary wagering on either of them and think the lines will be moving against them up until kickoff.
Value Plays (MLS Season Record: 7-11-1, -1.65 units)
- Portland (+400) at FC Dallas
- Seattle-Toronto FC Draw (+280)
- NYC FC (+305) at Minnesota United
2019 MLS Cup Odds
- The Los Angeles teams — LAFC (+450) and LA Galaxy (+600) — have established themselves as the two clear favorites to win the MLS Cup.
- The two New York clubs — Red Bulls (+1150) and NYC FC (+1400) — are at their worst odds of the season.
- Toronto FC have made a huge leap from +1700 to +900 over the past two weeks. They reached the MLS Cup two straight years before missing the playoffs last season.
Want live updates of the action all weekend? Follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.