Netherlands vs France Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Best Bets

Netherlands vs France Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Best Bets article feature image
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Kevin Cox/Getty. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.

Netherlands vs France Odds

Friday, June 21
3 p.m. ET
FOX
Netherlands Odds+220
France Odds+240
Draw+125
Over / Under
2.5
 +100 / -125
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In one of the best matchups of Euro 2024, France and the Netherlands will meet at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, Germany for a pivotal game in Group D.

The French secured three points in the opener with a 1-0 win over Austria, but there are big questions about the health of star Kylian Mbappé.

Meanwhile, the Dutch also got off to a winning start with a comeback victory over Poland.

These nations played each other in the qualifying, which should give us some great data points to find a winning bet here.

Here is my Netherlands vs France preview.


Netherlands

After giving up a goal in the first 16 minutes, it didn’t look like the Dutch were going to have a good start to the competition. However, they turned it around to keep pace with France in the group.

With that victory, this could allow manager Ronald Koeman to play for a draw here. He could lean on a veteran and strong defense if he elects to do so.

In the opener, the Netherlands started a backline that included Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool), Nathan Aké (Manchester City) and Matthijs de Ligt (Bayern Munich). This same defense only allowed one goal in the six games against non-French opposition in the qualifying matches.

That approach is typically not in Koeman’s DNA, but with Mbappé hindered, it could be a great way to prepare for this one.


France

There is no question about it. The biggest headline from the first round of games is how well Mbappé will cope with a broken nose.

The soon-to-be Real Madrid striker inadvertently smashed his face into the shoulder of an Austrian defender to cause the issue.

Luckily, the injury does not require surgery, and he will be able to play with a mask moving forward. At the time of writing, there is no confirmation as to whether he will play in this match or not.

Manager Didier Deschamps should still have plenty of options if Mbappé is out. He can either decide to play veteran Olivier Giroud or Antoine Griezmann as the main striker, or he can bring in Kingsley Coman as a winger.


Netherlands vs France

Prediction

Before the injury to Mbappé, I would have come into this game looking to bet the over 2.5, which cashed in the two qualifiers between the two nations.

The importance of the French superstar can be summed up in how he performed in those games. He scored four goals and added an assist, so this keeps me away from the total.

Whether he is in or not, I do see a bet in the props market that has value. With that said, my best bet is to take the under 24.5  match shots at -120.

This would have cashed in both of those previous meetings, and it has been a profitable bet when these teams have faced top opposition.

For the Dutch, this same play would have won in a recent friendly against Germany and in the Nations League semifinal against Croatia last year.

Meanwhile, this French squad also had a low shot total against the Germans in a friendly before only seeing 20 combined shots against Austria in the opener of this tournament.

Once you add in that I could see the Netherlands sitting deep for a draw, I think this total is too high whether Mbappé is in or not.

Pick: Match Shots U24.5 (-120 via bet365)

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