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Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arsenal vs. Burnley Preview (Sept. 18)

Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arsenal vs. Burnley Preview (Sept. 18) article feature image

Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Image

Burnley vs. Arsenal Odds

Burnley Odds +285
Arsenal Odds +100
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -115)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal look to build off their 1-0 win over Norwich City last time out when they travel to Turf Moor to battle Burnley.

The Clarets are off to a bad start, with only one point in their first four matches. Burnley survived relegation last season, finishing in 17th place with 39 points. This is their sixth straight season in the Premier League, but they are one of the favorites to be relegated this season.

Burnley’s defensive, physical style of play has been good enough to keep them in the English top flight, but this may be the season that sees them finally get relegated back to the Championship.

Arsenal are off to a nightmare of a start, losing three of their first four matches while only scoring one goal and allowing nine. Mikel Arteta’s seat is scalding hot right now and is in major danger of getting sacked if he can’t turn things around in a hurry.

Anything short of a win at Turf Moor for the Gunners will be viewed as a failure.

Clarets Due for Better Results

Despite losing three of their first four matches, the Clarets haven’t been as bad as their results have shown.

Burnley’s traditional ultra-defensive style of play hasn’t worked through their first four games, allowing 7.65 expected goals (xG) so far. However, the offense has been much better than a year ago, creating 6.02 xG so far.

Burnley’s style of play is very difficult to break down if you aren’t ready for a physical battle. The Clarets don’t allow teams to play through the middle of the pitch, instead forcing them out wide. Their 4-4-2 formation lets them stick eight guys behind the ball and absorb opposing attacks, daring teams to beat them with crosses into the middle.

Facing an Arsenal side that isn’t creating a lot of high-quality chances should give Burnley a good chance at getting a result.

Arsenal Desperately in Need of Points

The Gunners defense has been a mess to begin the season, allowing the most xG (10.58) in the league through their first four matches. They did deal with some injuries through the first three fixtures and are finally healthy. That said, Burnley will have trouble breaking them down.

Unfortunately, the Arsenal attack hasn’t been any better.

Arsenal is creating a lot going forward, but none of it has been high quality. They have 61 shots, but only created a total of 4.46 xG, which gives them an xG per shot of 0.07 and that’s horrendous by league standards. That’s the case when you take into consideration Manchester City has the most shots, averaging 0.16 xG per attempt.

Arsenal also really struggled to break down Burnley’s 4-4-2 setup a season ago, losing 1-0 at home and drawing 1-1 on the road.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think Arsenal are way overvalued in this spot, as I only have them projected at +149. That means there’s value on Burnley’s spread of +0.5 goals at -115 odds on DraftKings and would play it up to -125 odds.

Pick: Burnley +0.5 (-115)

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