Manchester City vs. Burnley Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Clever Way to Play a Huge Favorite

Man City vs. Burnley Odds

Odds last updated: 8 a.m. ET on Saturday

One of the more lopsided matchups in the Premier League this weekend will be at Etihad Stadium on Saturday when Manchester City hosts Burnley.

The defending champions enter the weekend third in the league table, whereas the Clarets sit in the relegation zone in 18th place.

If you look at the recent games between the sides, they have been completely dominated by the Cityzens. They've won the last four home games against Burnley by a score of 5-0 and taken 28 points out of a possible 30 against them in all league contests.

The oddsmakers are expecting a lot of the same, with Manchester City coming entering the fixture as high as a -1000 favorite at PointsBet, but the travelers will be looking to steal something from this game.

Expect Man City to Continue Dominance

How will Manchester City follow the big week prior the international break that saw a road win against Chelsea, a Champions League loss at Paris Saint-Germain and an exciting draw against Liverpool at Anfield?

With the big drop in opposition talent, manager Pep Guardiola’s side should continue to put up impressive numbers.

Man City leads the league in expected goals difference (+11.0), according to fbref.com, and ranks second in xG (15.0), shots per match (18.0) and big chances created (15) in those categories.

The Cityzens have been equally as dominant defensively, boasting the best xG against (4.0) and tying Chelsea with the lowest amount of goals allowed with three this season.

Although Guardiola is spoiled with attacking options, he might have a tough decision with who leads the line, with his two leading scorers in Ferran Torres and Gabriel Jesus both big doubts for the contest.

Woeful Burnley Stuck in Relegation Zone

There hasn’t been much positivity surrounding Burnley after seven games this season, with the club without a win and only just three points through draws with Norwich City, Leicester City and Leeds United.

Manager Sean Dyche’s team is toward the bottom of the league in xG difference (-3.9), xG (7.4) and shots allowed per 90 minutes (15.86) as well.

To make matters worse, captain defender Ben Mee will miss out after having a positive COVID-19 test ahead of this game.

The one positive is summer signing Maxwel Cornet should be returning for the match, but Burnley will likely need more reinforcements than just him to stand a chance in this meeting.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With Manchester City such a big favorite, the value is gone from backing the Cityzens on the moneyline or handicap of -2.5 (+105), and I can’t trust Burnley to have enough resistance to play the total under 3.5 goals at -125 odds.

I also don’t see the Clarets scoring in this game, which is why my best bet for this contest is to play Man City to Win to Nil at -143 odds.

Guardiola’s team hasn't given up a goal at home this season, only conceding in two of seven matches. Those occasions came against much better attacking sides in Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool.

We mentioned the dominance in the history of this tie, but the additional thing to keep in mind is that Dyche's team has been shutout in six of the last eight league meetings between the clubs.

If Burnley can’t score against the team that's tied for the most goals against this season in Norwich, how do we expect the club to score in this spot?

You have to get creative if you are looking to back the Cityzens these days, but I expect them to add to their clean-sheet tally at the weekend to go along with another victory.

Pick: Manchester City — Win to Nil (-143)