Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Tottenham vs. Burnley (May 15)
Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
We have reached the business end of the Premier League season.
And boy, are we set up for some wild finishes over the course of the next two weeks of drama-filled excitement in the English top flight.
Soccer analysts Avery Zimmerman and Ian Quillen deliver their top picks for two of Sunday's matches, featuring Tottenham hosting Burnley and Everton welcoming Brentford to Goodison Park for their important contest.
That said, let's take a look to see where they've landed for their selections.
Spurs vs. Burnley
| Spurs Odds | -275 |
| Burnley Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham came through its all-important clash with Arsenal to make the race for the top four a near dead heat, but I'm not convinced that it'll be able to follow up the result with another big game on deck.
This isn't a team that has been in great form over recent weeks, as it posted expected-goal deficits in four of its five previous games before the Arsenal victory. Even in that fixture, the domination came as a result of a penalty and subsequent garbage play from Rob Holding, so it's not as if Spurs concocted a brilliant performance.
That's not to say Tottenham doesn't deserve credit for the result, but it'll be dealing with a Burnley team that truly only needs one result to survive its relegation battle. And the Clarets put forth a masterclass the last time these two met, earning a 1-0 win on a 1.59-0.69 xG differential.
On the season, Burnley's -0.85 xG/game differential away from Turf Moor is only about a goal back of Tottenham's 0.22 number on home soil. This is also an improved Burnley side that's so close to pulling off another relegation Houdini act.
Look for the Clarets to make this a competitive fixture.
Zimmerman's Pick: Burnley +1.5 (-115)
Everton vs. Brentford
| Everton Odds | +110 |
| Brentford Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Relegation battler Everton has improved under manager Frank Lampard, particularly following the March international break.
However, are the Toffees as good Brentford with Christian Eriksen roaming the midfield? Decidedly not.
The emotion of Eriksen’s return to the pitch less than a year after the Danish international suffered a cardiac situation at the European Championships risks obscuring the difference his quality in midfield has made to his new team.
The Bees are winners of six of 10 since his first appearance. The analytics also hold up, with Brentford posting a +0.27 xG difference per 90 minutes since Eriksen debuted. In his eight starts, that escalates to +0.55 xG per 90 minutes.
Below-average Everton is flat since that March break. The Toffees have posted a narrow +0.3 xG difference in those matches. They’ve won three, lost three and drawn two matches. That's improved, but not as good as the Bees.
With EPL home teams winning 43% of the time, the only way to rationalize the Everton and its+110 moneyline odds (and implied 47.6% probability) is to say it's about the emotion a team fighting for survival.
However, there’s no sign of the Brentford coasting in this match. And you wouldn't expect it of Eriksen, a player who had a near-death scare, and Brentford, a club in its first top flight season since the 1940s.
That said, I see Brentford or Draw at -140 odds and an implied 58.3% probability as a good play. However, you could also wait, as I expect most of the public to be on Everton and the price to rise higher close to game time.
Pick: Double Chance — Brentford or Draw (-140)
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