Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Watford vs. Leicester City (May 15)
John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolverhampton goaltender José Sá.
Norwich City and Watford have already suffered the fate of Premier League relegation, but still have matches left on their respective calendars.
On Sunday, last-place Norwich City travels to Molineux Stadium to face Wolves, while Watford hosts Leicester City in its final home game. And although it might not be advised, the fact these sides have already been relegated doesn't mean we're precluded from betting on these contests.
So, without further hesitation, here are my best bets for both Wolves vs. Norwich City and Watford vs. Leicester City.
Wolves vs. Norwich City
| Wolves Odds | -225 |
| Norwich City Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Norwich City has absolutely quit.
In its last five fixtures, the Canaries' defense has proven utterly shambolic. Although the offensive competition hasn't been terrible — three of five opponents rank in the top eight of expected goals per 90 minutes — manager Dean Smith's side is still allowing 2.46 xG/90 minutes, up from a season-long average of 2.01 xGA/90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Additionally, its attack has been held goalless in four consecutive fixtures and less than one xG in three of those matches.
On the flip side, Wolverhampton has been almost as bad. In its last five fixtures, the club is 0-4-1 (W-L-D) and created less than one xG in four of five contests. Plus, in its last three fixtures against teams not named Chelsea or Manchester City, Wolves is allowing 1.7 xG per 90 minutes.
The good news for Norwich is that this is easily the worst attack it will face since being relegated. Additionally, the reverse fixture between these sides only saw a combined 1.8 xG generated.
So, although the Norwich defense has played awfully of late, hold your nose and take the under at Molineux.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
Watford vs. Leicester City
| Watford Odds | +250 |
| Leicester Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The difficult part of this handicap is that we don't know what lineup manager Roy Hodgson is going to deploy.
In a midweek contest against Everton, the Watford lineup was cringeworthy and did well enough to earn a point. However, the Hornets lost the xG battle by a whopping 1.06-0.39 difference.
In contrast, Leicester looked really good against Norwich City. The Foxes won the match, 3-0, and finished ahead on xG (2.5-1.2) in the process. And although it lost the reverse fixture to Watford on xG (2.7-2.2), I question the motivation for the host in this latest meeting.
In its last six fixtures against teams not named Manchester City or Liverpool, the Watford defense has conceded 1.38 xG per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Leicester has now cleared at least 1.5 xG in two consecutive fixtures, as it attempts to secure a top-half spot.
Plus, in nine matches against the bottom five sides this season, Leicester's attack has generated 1.61 xG per 90 minutes and failed to clear 1.25 xG in three of nine matches.
As a result, I believe you're getting a discount on the Leicester team total and will back its offense to continue to perform against a weak Watford defense.
Pick: Leicester City — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
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