Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Wolves vs. Aston Villa Preview (June 27, 2020)
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Neto
Wolves vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa odds||+380|
|Time||7:30 a.m. ET|
Wolves enter Saturday’s road matchup with Aston Villa tied with Manchester United on 49 points for fifth place in the Premier League.
In a normal Premier League season, a race for fifth wouldn’t be as high profile as it is this year due to Manchester City’s potential ban from next year’s Champions League. It’s left Manchester United and Wolves competing for the chance at the final CL spot.
At the other end of the table, Villa are fighting to remain in the Premier League next season. Currently in 19th, Villa are below Bournemouth and West Ham on goal difference at -23.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Wolves have now kept clean sheets in four of their last five, winning four and drawing one of those matches. Since the return from the layoff, Wolves have allowed 0.4 xG in two matches, bringing their season-long total to 28.3 xGA for the year, which is now best in the Premier League.
Wolves aren’t a possession team, but they’re as solid defensively as anyone in the PL, and have a team built to hit teams on the counter and send crosses into the box to target man Raul Jimenez. Crosses have resulted in Wolves’ last three goals in 2-0 and 1-0 successive wins since the Premier League restart.
While there were defensive issues when the league season began back in August, those are largely gone now, and it’s helped Wolves turn draws into wins. Only Liverpool have lost fewer games than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side (6) this year.
Perhaps the most jarring statistic when looking at this Wolves side is their minute-by-minute splits. No team in the PL has larger first to second half splits than Wolverhampton, who have been outscored 24-12 in first halves this season, and outscored opponents 32-10 in the second half. When they have taken one-goal leads this season, they have conceded just one goal.
On the other side, Villa have leaked goals for this entire season. By expected goals, the Claret and Blue are the league’s worst team, at -25 xGD. They’ve conceded 59 goals on 59.6 xGA, both highest in the PL, including nine goals off corners and 40 from open play.
While forward Jack Grealish has been their sole chance creator and finisher for most of the season and has garnered attention from the biggest English clubs, Villa doesn’t have much else going forward. Grealish and Wesley are the only players with five or more goals.
Villa’s performance against Chelsea show the Claret and Blue’s ability to hit opposition on the break, but part of the reason Wolves have the fourth fewest goals conceded is because they themselves don’t like to be on the ball and break down opponents much, making it difficult for teams to hit them on the counter.
My betting strategy is a little different than usual for this one. While I do believe Wolves ML offers some value at -130, I believe there will be a better price to buy even more on them.
I’ll take a half-unit pregame position on them, and then look to live bet at a better price if, as I suspect, this game starts slow and remains goalless through at least the first 20-25 minutes. Then, I’ll look to play even more on Wolves ML live.
Because I’m anticipating another slow start to a Wolves match, I’ll also add an under 1 in the first half.
- First half under 1 (-130)
- Wolves -130 (.5 units)
- Look to bet Wolves moneyline live at a better price throughout the match