Man City at Brighton Betting Odds, Pick and Prediction: Seagulls’ Organization Gives Total Value

Man City at Brighton Betting Odds, Pick and Prediction: Seagulls’ Organization Gives Total Value article feature image
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Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Grealish.

  • Mancehster City plays at Brighton on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC) in a Premier League match featuring two top-5 teams.
  • The Seagulls have turned all those heartbreakers from last season into results, and find themselves toward the top of the table.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down his Man City-Brighton pick below.

Brighton vs. Man City Odds

Brighton Odds +700
Man City Odds -255
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBC | fuboTV | Peacock Premium
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

A top-four clash takes place in prime time on Saturday in the Premier League, as fourth-place Brighton & Hove Albion host third-place Manchester City.

Brighton are off to a dream start to the season, picking up 14 points from their first eight matches. However, the Seagulls’ toughest test so far this season has just been Everton. It will be good to see them face off against one of the best teams in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, Manchester Cityhave been in a great run of form in the Premier League, winning six of their last seven matches by a combined score of 16-2.

Last season when the Cityzens traveled to Brighton, they had already wrapped up the Premier League title and were upset 3-2. Could we be in store for a similar upset on Saturday?

New Season, Big Changes at Brighton

What’s funny about this season is Brighton is actually over performing their expected goals (xG) numbers, as they have a +3 actual goal differential compared to a 0.23 xGD, when last season, they had one of the historically unlucky seasons in Premier League history.

Our first Justice Table of the season.

Brighton and Chelsea, last season’s largest xG under-performers, have both over-performed considerably so far.

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) September 20, 2021

Brighton’s offensive numbers are not where they were last season, averaging only 1.10 xG per match, only creating five big-scoring chances, and are 13th in shots per 90 minutes, per fbref.com

The Seagulls defense is still really good, despite selling Ben White to Arsenal over the summer. Brighton are third in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) allowed at 0.91, fifth in shots allowed per 90 minutes and third in big scoring chances allowed.

What makes Brighton so good defensively is their pressing. The Seagulls have the third-most pressures in the Premier League and have the No. 1 pressure success rate. This unit is absolutely capable of slowing down one of the best attacks in the world.

New Season, Same Powerful Manchester City

Manchester City are still the same dominant juggernaut that won the Premier League last season. They may be sitting in third place in the table, but Pep Guardiola’s side has been routing opponents with +13.17 expected goal difference, which is the best mark in the Premier League.

The main reason for that is because their defense is once again the best in England, allowing only 0.63 NPxG per match, 6.12 shots per 90 minutes and 7.38 box entries per match, all of which are the best marks in the Premier League.

City also rank first in the Premier League in pressure success rate allowed, which means they’ll be able to handle the best pressing team in Brighton.

Offensively, the addition of Jack Grealish has made Manchester City almost unstoppable, as they’re averaging 2.11 NPxG per match. Grealish is averaging 0.48 xG + expected assists per 90 minutes in eight matches in the Premier League.

City will provide Brighton their biggest test of the season to see if they are for real.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though City’s attack obviously has been prolific this season, I do think Brighton are organized and disciplined enough to hold them in check and keep this match from getting out of hand. Also, both of these teams have really slow build-up play in attack, which also favors a low-scoring contest. 

I only have 2.21 goals projected for this match, so I think there is some value on under 2.5 goals. 

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+100)

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