Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Southampton vs. Burnley Betting Preview (Oct. 23)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Southampton vs. Burnley Betting Preview (Oct. 23) article feature image
Credit:

Dave Howarth – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Dyche.

Southampton vs. Burnley Odds

Southampton Odds -105
Burnley Odds +300
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Two teams toward the bottom of the Premier League table will meet on Saturday at the St. Mary’s Stadium, where Southampton hosts Burnley in an important match between clubs looking to avoid relegation.

It will surely be a tight affair with chances at a premium, as both teams rank in the bottom three of the league in goals scored (11 combined).

The Saints picked up their first win of the campaign against Leeds United last weekend, while the Clarets are still searching for their first victory to add to three draws.

Southampton did the double against Burnley last season, but the away side will be pushing for a positive result to get out of the relegation zone.

Southampton Due for Improved Finishing?

Has Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team been poor finishers or just unlucky in front of goal? You have to figure some positive regression is on the way as Southampton only has six goals on 11.1 expected goals (xG), according to fbref.com.

Before the victory against Leeds last weekend, the Saints picked up impressive draws against both Manchester clubs and West Ham, so they do have the quality to pose problems and hold their own in games.

Injuries have been an issue early on this season for Hasenhüttl, with important players like Che Adams, Theo Walcott and Stuart Armstrong all missing games throughout the first two months.

A very influential figure will be out this match due to suspension, with captain, leading scorer and set-piece specialist James Ward-Prowse sitting out the second of his three-game ban due to a red card against Chelsea.

One key contributor keeping the Saints in games this season has been goalkeeper Alex McCarthy, who ranks fourth in the Premier League in post-shot xG minus goals allowed per match at +0.09.

Burnley Firmly in Relegation Battle

Not much has gone right for Burnley through the first eight fixtures, with the Clarets sitting near the bottom of the league in multiple attacking categories like goals scored (five), xG (8.5) and xG difference (-4.8).

In fact, no team in the top four divisions of English soccer is on a longer winless streak than Burnley at 11, and Sean Dyche’s team has failed to score on seven of those occasions.

The Clarets have never been a high-flying, attacking team under Dyche, but his style isn’t going to work if you are also ranking near the bottom of the league in xG against at 13.2.

If there’s one positive, two of the three draws this campaign have come over the last three matches against Leicester City and Norwich City.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As much as I do think the total is a good play here, my best bet for this match is to play Under 1 goal in the first half at -120.

In the first halves of games this season, only Manchester City has allowed fewer goals (zero) than the Saints (one), and Southampton only has scored two in the first 45. Burnley, meanwhile, has failed to score in the first half of six of its eight league games.

No total has gone over one in the opening 45 minutes of all of Southampton’s league fixtures, while the first-half total has gone over one just once in the matches involving the Clarets.

You have two veteran managers that keep their teams compact until halftime, and I’m betting on that to continue in a cagey start on Saturday.

Pick: 1st Half Total Under 1 (-120)

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