Premier League Odds & Picks | Fulham vs Luton Town Prediction
Ralf Ibing/Getty. Pictured: Ryan Giles.
Fulham vs Luton Town Odds
|Luton Town Odds||+445|
|Over / Under|
-125 / +100
Fulham and Luton Town will meet on Saturday as they look to rebound off of losses in match week four.
The Cottagers have had a chaotic start to the season, beating Everton on the road, getting destroyed by Brentford at home, getting a lucky late draw with Arsenal and then getting dismantled 5-1 by Man City before the international break.
Fulham have seen their best striker, Aleksander Mitrovic, leave for the Saudi Pro League, but they were able to hold onto their star midfielder Joao Palhinha whose deal with Bayern Munich fell through at the transfer deadline.
Luton Town have had a rough start to life in the top division. The Hatters have lost all three of their matches by a combined scored of 9 to 2, and it's pretty clear they lack the talent to compete in the Premier League. It is a long season and they've faced pretty good competition through three matches, so playing a team down towards their level may give them a better chance.
As crazy as it sounds, I didn’t think Fulham were as bad as the final scoreline suggested against City. They held the best team in the world to just six shots for the entire match and one of them was a penalty. However, this is the same Fulham team that has conceded 11.7 xG in four matches.
This is a match where Fulham are going to have to be the ones controlling the possession and playing through pressure, which is not something they are great at. Basically the only thing Fulham have done positively so far this season is be efficient on set pieces, as the scored against both City and Arsenal that way. Four matches in, they are second in the Premier League in xG per set piece. Luton Town are third right now through three matches in xG allowed per set piece and are top eight in aerial dual win percentage.
Fulham have struggled to defend in wide areas. They've done a good job of closing down the middle of the pitch this season, but they have allowed 82 crosses and allowed seven of them to be completed into their penalty area.
They also don't have a consistent goal scoring threat up top after Mitrovic left. Through four matches, Raul Jimenez is leading them with seven shots, but only 0.4 xG to show for it.
Luton Town have had to play three really tough opponents to begin the season, having to travel to Brighton and Chelsea while also hosting West Ham, who are in incredible form. Now, they get to face a team down near their level and the market has severely downgraded them.
They weren’t that bad against West Ham at home in their last match even though they lost 2-1. They won the xG battle by a whopping 1.9 to 1.2.
Luton 1 : 2 West Ham
— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) September 1, 2023
Luton Town's high pressing style that saw them lead the Championship in high turnovers has not really manifested itself in the Premier League. They have forced the seventh-most high turnovers, but they are dead last in the PPDA and opponent buildup completion percentage allowed. To be fair they have faced two of the best build up teams in England in Chelsea and Brighton.
Instead they've tried to play their low block with five at the back, which was successful against West Ham holding them to just 1.2 xG and as you can see from the pass map above, made it very difficult for the Hammers to play the ball through the middle of the pitch.
Fulham vs Luton Town
Pick & Prediction
The market is about as low as it can be for Luton Town right now, which I think makes this a perfect buy low opportunity.
Fulham's underlying metrics have been so bad for so long that they should never be laying this big of a number against anybody in the Premier League. The Cottagers are not used to being the ones that are controlling possession and trying to build out of the back. They usually like to play the ball long and play really direct, which will play right into how Luton Town's hands.
I only have Fulham projected at +128, so I love the value on Luton Town +1 at -134.