Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arsenal vs. Watford Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arsenal vs. Watford Betting Preview article feature image
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Credit: Paul Ellis, Getty. Watford celebrates a goal against Everton.

  • Arsenal welcomes Watford to Emirates Stadium for Sunday’s Premier League match.
  • The Gunners have been in stellar form on late, while the Hornets continue to struggle.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the game below and explains why he likes Watford to cover the spread.

Arsenal vs. Watford Odds

Arsenal Odds -260
Watford Odds +700
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Arsenal plays host to Watford on Sunday as manager Mikel Arteta’s team looks to stay red hot in the Premier League.

Watford enters the contest with a mixed bag of results, notching four points from its last five contests. It’s not necessarily the type of form that manager Claudio Ranieri wants to see, but it’s not necessarily relegation form either.

On paper, this projects to be an incredibly attractive matchup for the Gunners, but will they be able to capitalize?

Resurgent Arsenal in Phenomenal Form

Don’t look now, but Arsenal is slowly creeping up the EPL table, and it currently sits in sixth place. The Gunners have won three of their last five in the league and haven’t lost a game across all competitions since Aug. 28.

Though Arsenal has certainly been fortunate in getting some of those results, it won’t be complaining. At this point in the year, Arsenal has amassed the seventh-best expected goals total in the league with 1.43/game.

However, Arsenal can’t say the same about its defense, which ranks 14th in the league at 1.56 xGA. Fortunately for this matchup, those numbers are a bit better at home, where Arsenal generates 1.79 xG and concedes 1.3 xGA per game.

Arteta will be without Granit Xhaka on Sunday, but outside of that his team has a fairly clean bill of health. Kieran Tierney could return to the picture after dealing with an ankle issue, though I don’t anticipate Arteta will be eager to rush him back.

Struggling Watford in Dangerous Position

The Hornets come into this contest in a far different spot. At 16th in the Premier League, they’re not in an emergency situation yet, but they’re at risk of falling into the relegation zone if they can’t pick up the pace.

Watford has won one game in its last five, that being a romp of Everton at Goodison Park. Defensively, Watford has a nearly identical xGA/game number as Arsenal (1.57), but the Hornets have conceded five more goals than their London-based counterparts.

On the attacking side, the story hasn’t been the same. Watford generates the 16th-best xG/game number in the Premier League (1.08) and has only scored 12 goal through 10 games.

The Hornets could be receiving an injury boost on Sunday, however, as Francisco Sierralta and Kiko Femenia both have a chance to feature. Emmanuel Dennis also returns after a one-game suspension. The additions would be welcome for a team that is in need of depth and stability.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s hard to get fired up about backing Watford, but it’s far more possible to rationalize fading Arsenal, which has outperformed its xG numbers by a decent amount.

The Gunners haven’t conceded at the rate that would be expected based on their defense’s performances, and regression is coming. Against a hungry Watford team that is returning players and in need of a key result, this could be the time.

However, even if a let-down is coming for Arsenal, I believe that you’re far better off paying for some insurance rather than taking a flier on the Hornets, who don’t have the potency to challenge Arsenal and win outright without a piece of fortune.

Rather, opt for the Asian Handicap of +1.25 at plus money to find value. This offers you some security.

Pick: Watford +1.25 (+105)

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