Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Arsenal vs. Leeds United EPL Betting Preview
Mike Hewitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United teammates Lewis Bate, left, Jack Harrison and Daniel James, right, celebrate a goal.
- Arsenal welcomes Leeds United to Emirates Stadium for Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
- The Peacocks are trying to fight off relegation, so picking up points is a must.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the game below and details why he’s backing Leeds to get a result.
Arsenal vs. Leeds Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -175)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In a Premier League tie that will have serious implications on both the race for the top four and the relegation battle, Arsenal hosts Leeds United on Sunday at Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners are fighting for a berth in next year’s Champions League competition, while the Peacocks are now in a surprise relegation battle.
That said, let’s see where the betting value lies ahead of the crucial fixture.
Arsenal Chasing Champions League Berth
With four games remaining in the EPL season, it’s all to play for as Arsenal looks to return to a competition that it hasn’t played in since the 2016 event.
Seeking a UCL berth, the Gunners have gone through an up-and-down period that has featured some excellent results andsome puzzling ones, but they’re in the driver’s seat for the final spot the Premier League gets in the competition.
This game is a key opportunity for Arsenal to create some separation, as fifth-placed Tottenham faces a trip to Anfield for a battle with Liverpool. An Arsenal win and a Spurs draw would result in a four-point gap between the clubs ahead of their huge matchup on Thursday.
Ahead of Arsenal’s Sunday contest, the host is anywhere from -240 to -300 to secure a spot in the Champions League, but if things can go its way across the weekend, it will be in a convincing position.
Leeds Trying to Avoid Relegation Disaster
On the other end of the table is Leeds, which is now the favorite to be the third team relegated to the Championship.
As of just a month ago, the Peacocks were +1100 to be sent down, but now they sit at +130 odds. While they’re level on points with Burnley and ahead of Everton, the Toffees have a game in hand and Leeds’ remaining schedule is far harder than its competitors’, with two games against top four teams to play.
Getting a result from this contest would be a massive step toward remaining in the EPL, but it’s likely going to take multiple point-earning performances to achieve that feat.
Leeds has taken points from five consecutive non-Manchester City foes and looks for that streak to continue.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With teams that are in desperate need of a result, stakes will be high on both ends. At this price, I believe that Arsenal is being given heavy credit for recent performances without properly weighting the poor showings that it experienced in games prior.
The Gunners have a 0.88 xG/game differential at home while the Peacocks maintain a -0.5 xG/game differential away from Elland Road.
However, Leeds have stayed within 1.5 xG of its opponent in each of its last four away matches, and it has been within 0.2 in three. Arsenal, on the other hand, has posted 1.5 xG edges in two of its prior five home affairs.
This line is a touch too generous to a Leeds side that has been capable of finding quality performances going up against an Arsenal side that is far from ruthless.
Pick: Leeds +1.5 (-140)