Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Can Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United Down Brentford in EPL Match?
Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo, right, gets off a shot.
- Manchester United welcomes Brentford to Old Trafford for Monday's Premier League showdown.
- The Red Devils are still clinging to hopes of securing a Champions League berth, meaning a win here is a must.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the contest below and explains why he's found value on the betting total.
Man United vs. Brentford Odds
|Man United Odds||-135|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Manchester United looks to end a three-match winless run Monday at Old Trafford when it faces Brentford, which arrives on a four-game unbeaten tear ahead of this Premier League showdown.
The Bees also has five wins in their last seven league fixtures, including impressive victories against Chelsea and West Ham United. Meanwhile, the Red Devils have only one victory in the month of April, which came in a home triumph against Norwich City.
The reverse meeting at the Brentford Community Stadium saw Manchester United earn win 3-1 in the first EPL meeting between the clubs, but saw Brentford finished with a 2.2-2.0 edge in expected goals.
Man United Seeking Consistency on Pitch
United has proved radically inconsistent over its last 10 fixtures, which has contributed to its dip in form.
On attack, the Red Devils have just as many outputs with at least two xG as they do less one xG, plus they’re averaging 1.39 xG per 90 minutes. That’s down from a season-long average of 1.47 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Additionally, interim manager Ralph Rangnick’s defense has fallen off a cliff. It has conceded at least 1.9 xG in four consecutive games, allowing 1.56 xG per 90 minutes that’s up from a season-long average of 1.45 xGA/90 minutes
If there’s good news for United, it’s that its home outings continue to produce results. Entering this meeting with Brentford, the host has earned at least a point in eight consecutive home fixtures (four wins; four draws) and has good results against the bottom half. In nine home contests against such opposition, United is 4-1-4 (W-L-D), but has won eight of nine games on xG overall.
The Red Devils’ attack has done well in those matches as well, creating 1.78 xG per 90 minutes and at least two xG in five of nine outings.
Healthy Brentford Finishing Season Strong
The months of January and February were not kind of Brentford, which was forced to handle myriad injuries.
However, with the team back at full health, March and April have played out superbly. That’s largely due to Brentford’s attack, which has produced at least 1.3 xG in six of its last seven fixtures. Even if you include its 0.8 xG output in its last match against Tottenham, Brentford is still creating 1.6 xG/90 in its last seven games, well up from a season-long average of 1.22 xG/90 minutes.
Further, manager Thomas Frank’s defense has turned in some great efforts, particularly against strong foes. In three matches against Chelsea, Tottenham and West Ham, the Bees have allowed only 2.6 xG, per fbref.com.
Plus, Brentford has seemingly discovered something away from home. It has three road wins in its last four matches, one more than its total road wins over the previous 13 road contests.
However, those results have largely been dictated by Brentford’s attack. Its defense has still conceded at least one xG in eight consecutive road fixtures and held only three opponents under 0.75 xG away from home.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Don’t get me wrong. I have zero interest in laying a price with Manchester United here.
However, there’s a small part of me that thinks Brentford might be too trendy of an underdog. Plus, although I think the Bees get a result, I’m simply more confident playing the total for this match.
As referenced earlier, these sides combined for 4.20 xG in the opening fixture, along with eight big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Combine Brentford’s recent attacking form with United’s positive attacking effort on home soil — at least one xG in all but three home fixtures – and I believe this contest could be just as open.
Plus, Brentford has a distinct advantage over United in its ability to create off dead-ball situations. The Bees have generated the most xG off set-piece situations this season, while United is sixth worst in defending them.
For those reasons, I’m backing the total clearing 2.5 goals at Old Trafford and would play it to -145 odds.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)