Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Everton vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (Sunday, July 12)

Everton at Wolves Odds & Pick

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Neither Everton nor Wolverhampton Wanderers are playing particularly exciting football at the moment so a 7 a.m. ET start time on a Sunday morning seems appropriate for a match that, judging by its low total, could be a bit of a grind.

Everton kicked off Project Restart with an impressive 0-0 draw against Liverpool and then built off that result with a pair of wins over Norwich City and Leicester. It looked like the Toffees were a good bet to put together a strong finish to the season.

Unfortunately, things have hit a bit of a snag over their last two matches — a 1-0 loss to Spurs and a lucky 1-1 draw against Southampton — and Everton have looked uninspired going forward.

The Toffees have only created 1.07 expected goals combined in their last two matches and there seems to be a disconnect in the center of the park as Everton’s central midfielders have not been able to provide their attacking options with any help.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Like their opponents on Sunday, Wolves have also had a whale of a time finding offense of late. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have not scored in either of their last two matches and their xG total from those matches sits at just 1.32.

Both of these teams have match-winning talent up front, but the lack of oomph supporting the likes of Lucas Digne, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Everton and Raul Jimenez, Adama Traore and Diogo Jota for Wolves, has basically turned these teams into one-trick ponies going forward. If one of those players doesn’t create something, it’s hard to see how either team will score in this game.

Whether you’re looking at surface-level stats or advanced metrics, this match looks like it will be a slog.

Everton and Wolves have identical scoring records since the break with four goals scored and three conceded in five matches, but Wolves have been the better defensive team. In fact, Wolves have allowed the fewest xG (2.66) in the Premier League since the hiatus.

It’s never a bad idea to consider betting the draw in a game with a low total, and that’s exactly what I plan to do on Sunday.

Both of these teams are playing organized, defense-first football and neither offense is finding things easy at the moment, so I don’t see this match getting away from either side on Sunday. That should keep the draw in play throughout the 90 minutes.