Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Manchester City vs. Fulham (Dec. 5)
Laurence Griffiths/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Benjamin Mendy
- Manchester City enters Saturday's Premier League match against Fulham is a big favorite.
- The Cityzens have gotten off to a slow start in the EPL this season, but their underlying metrics say the offense should be scoring more. Fulham has also been stepping up its offensive game lately, averaging 1.92 expected goals in their eight matches.
- Get our best bet for Fulham vs. Manchester City below.
Manchester City vs. Fulham Odds
|Manchester City odds||-835 [BET NOW]|
|Fulham odds||+2000 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+800 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 10 a.m. ET|
Manchester City look to continue their quest to get back into the Premier League’s Top 4 on Saturday as they host Fulham.
The Cityzens have started the EPL season out on the wrong foot and need to put together a major run to make up ground on the top of the table and it starts on Saturday. They were held scoreless in a 0-0 draw in their Champions league match at Porto on Tuesday. However, the Premier League should have their main focus, since they’ve already qualified for the Champions League knockout stage.
It’s been an up and down season for newly promoted Fulham, but they did pull off a major upset on Monday, beating Leicester 2-1 at the King Power Stadium. The win pulled them out of the relegation zone and into 17th place.
The Cottagers are going to be in over their head when they face their toughest opponent yet this season.
What’s been surprising about Manchester City’s start to the Premier League is how bad their offense has been. They’re only averaging 1.63 expected goals per match, which is well below their average from last season of 2.69.
However, it’s hard to ignore how good the Cityzens were in 2019-20. Even though they finished in second, City’s +65.12 expected goals differential was nearly 30 goals better than Liverpool’s.
Since the restart last season, Manchester City’s matches have seen plenty of goals. On average, 3.33 total expected goals have been scored in Manchester City over that time frame. That led to 47% of City’s matches going over 3.5 goals.
Given the slow start to the Premier League season, I expect Saturday’s encounter with Fulham should have manager Pep Guardiola’s full attention.
Despite their upset win against Leicester, the Cottagers have gotten off to a disastrous start. They have lost seven of their first ten matches, allowing the most goals of any club in the league so far this season.
Fulham, which allowed 1.30 xG per match in the Championship, is projected to allow more than 2.0 xG/game this season. That’s something we’re already seeing a trend toward, as the Cottagers have conceded 1.65 xG thus far.
Fulham made a lot of purchases during the transfer window to bolster its attack and it’s starting to pay off. Over their last three matches, Fulham has averaged 1.92 xG per match against three of the top eight teams in the table.
Projections and Pick
Last week’s 5-0 blowout over Burnley got Manchester City’s offense back on track. Even though they were held scoreless against Porto, they did generate 2.87 xG in the match.
Fulham will be the softest defense they’ve seen all season long, so I expect the Cityzens to hang a big number on the Cottagers. Also, given how good Fulham’s offense has been over the last three matches, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they can put one in the back of the net.
I have the total projected at 4.06, so I think there is value on over 4 goals at +123 at DraftKings.
Pick: Over 4 (+123)