Premier League Odds & Picks | Southampton vs Man City Preview

Premier League Odds & Picks | Southampton vs Man City Preview article feature image

James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Pep Guardiola.

Southampton vs Man City Odds

Saturday, April 8
12:30 p.m. ET

Southampton Odds


Man City Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-167 / +138)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+120 / -157)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

A massively important match for both clubs for different reasons takes place on the south coast this weekend, as Southampton host Manchester City.

The Saints are sitting at the foot of the Premier League table, desperate for points in their quest for survival. They are coming off a loss to West Ham over the weekend, but Southampton have played much better at Saint Mary's Stadium than they have on the road. They also have given Manchester City trouble in the past, so don't be surprised if they hang with the Cityzens.

Nobody is hotter than Manchester City at the moment. Pep Guardiola's side has scored a whopping 17 goals in their last three matches in all competitions. They're coming off a dominant second half against Liverpool over the weekend, which ended in a 4-1 victory. They need this match to be able to keep pace with Arsenal for the Premier League title, but it's also a look ahead spot with Bayern Munich looming on Tuesday.

Southampton in Desperation Mode

Desperation time has set in for Southampton in the relegation fight. They are now on their third manager of the season and will continue to set up in a 4-4-2 and play very direct under Rubén Sellés

Southampton have run ridiculously cold defensively this season and a lot of it comes down to bad goalkeeping play. The Saints have allowed 47 goals off 39.8 xG and their goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu had a -10.7 post shot xG +/-.

Unless he is the worst goalkeeper in Premier League history, he is bound to improve and regress towards the mean. Selles went back to Southampton's patented 4-4-2 that they played for years under Ralph Hasenhüttl, which will give Southampton more structure and it's helped them because since he's taken over, as Southampton

The problems that have existed for Southampton are because of their attack. They do not have a good striking duo that can finish at a high rate.  Southampton are only averaging 0.88 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just 15 big scoring chances on the season.

However, Southampton have been much better at home than they've been on the road this season, as they only have a -3.0 xGD at the St. Mary's Stadium versus a -8.7 xGD away from home.

Saints have given Manchester City problems in the past. Last season they drew the Cityzens in both meetings and only had a -1.2 xGD in those two matches. Additionally, they beat Manchester City 2-0 in the League Cup earlier this season at home and Manchester City played a fairly strong starting XI. So, Southampton are absolutely capable of hanging with Manchester City.

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Man City Thriving in Key Period

Pep Guardiola's side looks unstoppable at the moment. Just when questions were starting to be raised after their 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig in the Champions League, Manchester City ripped off seven straight wins in all competitions and have scored 27 goals, while only conceding twice.

Manchester City have become much more aggressive in their build up play, which is paying off big dividends. When they were going through difficult stretches in the middle of the season, Pep was obsessed at playing through the middle of the pitch. They were building up in a 3-2-3-2 shape with Rico Lewis inverting into the midfield.

Against Liverpool, Kevin De Bruyne's positioning was instrumental in Manchester City's ability to get the ball out wide and run at Liverpool's defense from wide areas.

Three of Manchester City's four goals against Liverpool came from direct attacks with Liverpool playing their usual high line, but the attacks also came from wide areas via crosses towards the center of the pitch. Southampton are not going to play a a high line and allow Manchester City to run at them with numbers they Liverpool did. So, City will be forced to break down a 4-4-2 low block.

The previous meeting in the League Cup where City lost 2-0 at Southampton wasn't a situation where City created a ton of chances and got unlucky. It was actually a very even match.

Southampton 2 : 0 Man City

▪ xG: 0.64 – 0.81
▪ xThreat: 1.0 – 1.22
▪ Possession: 29.2% – 70.8%
▪ Field Tilt: 44.0% – 56.0%
▪ Def Line Height: 45.4 – 37.9

— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) January 11, 2023

With this being a look ahead spot with Manchester City facing Bayern Munich on Tuesday, they could get caught napping once again.

Southampton vs Man City Pick

I really believe the market is far too low on Southampton here. They have drastically underperformed to this point in the season and are not the worst team in the Premier League even though they're sitting at the bottom of the table.

Given the problems they have presented Manchester City in the past and given this is a look ahead spot for City with their Champions League quarterfinal match against Bayern Munich being far more important, I think this is a good spot to back Southampton.

Additionally, Southampton have played four matches at home against the big six this season and have gone 1-2-1 with a +0.1 xGD.

I only have Manchester City's spread projected at -1.34, so I like the value on Southampton +1.5 at +116.

Pick: Southampton +1.5 (+116) 

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