Premier League Odds, Picks | Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Preview

Premier League Odds, Picks | Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Preview article feature image

Malcolm Couzens/Getty. Pictured Pierre-Emile Hojberg.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Odds

Saturday, Mar. 11
10 a.m. ET

Tottenham Odds


Nottingham Forest Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-121 / -103)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+114 / -143)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Tottenham Hotspur crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday night and they might not return next year if they can't defeat the visiting Nottingham Forest on Saturday.

Spurs have gone 278 minutes in all competitions without a goal following an uninspiring 0-0 home draw against AC Milan. That allowed the Italians to progress 1-0 on aggregate to the quarterfinals and appears to have Tottenham manager Antonio Conte on the verge of losing his job.

A visit from a Forest side that is suddenly conceding lots of goals could be very welcome. Everton scored multiple goals for the first time in 16 matches in their 2-2 draw at Forest last weekend. Before that, the Trees conceded all their goals after the 70th minute in a 4-0 hiding at West Ham.

Spurs won these sides' previous meeting, 2-0. It was the only time all season Forest have been kept scoreless at home.

Tottenham in Desperate Need of Change

Spurs enter the weekend clinging to the fourth spot in the Premier League table, three points above Liverpool and four above Newcastle United. Liverpool have one match in hand, and Newcastle have two.

If there's any bright side to a three-match scoreless stretch, it's that now Tottenham only have the league to focus on. Their FA Cup run is also over after a 1-0 away defeat to second-tier Sheffield United in the fifth round to begin March.

But Conte may be a lame duck. Brazil's Richarlison publicly slammed Conte for dropping him to the bench for the match in the second leg against Milan. Several media members questioned why newly signed forward Arnaut Danjuma was not summoned from the bench with Spurs needing a goal late. Multiple reports suggest the club's board is considering a change at least at the end of the season, if not sooner.

Even so, in league play Spurs have won four of their last six and appeared to be building some momentum before a 1-0 loss at Wolverhampton Wanderers a week ago.

Perhaps the frustration in their position not only stems from inconsistency but the nature of the losses when they come. Tottenham's previous four league defeats before their trip to Wolves have come by multiple goals.

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Nottingham Forest Struggle to Perform in Many Ways

You can break down Forest's season into three distinct phases.

In the first, manager Steve Cooper tried to play the same three-center back system that helped the Trees earn their place in the Premier League. The results were disastrous, with only four points earned from seven matches.

In the second, Cooper switched to a more pragmatic back four and his side began earning more results and outplaying opponents at times. In a four-game league stretch that began on New Year's Day, his team earned eight points and created more xG than the opponent in each game.

Now we seem to have entered a third period following a shellacking by Manchester United in the League Cup semifinals, in which defensive weakness is returning.  Forest have taken five points from the last five games, and that's more than they deserve from a stretch where they've posted a -5.9 xDiff.

A major contributing factor could be a continuing crisis at center back, where Joe Worrall and Felipe have started together for several matches as the only healthy options.

The one permanent feature of Forest's season is that their attack just hasn't traveled. Cooper's men have only scored three away goals all season, one each against the three teams that begin the weekend in the relegation places.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Pick

It feels counterintuitive given recent momentum, but the clear value here is on Spurs to cover a -1.5 goal handicap wager at +123 odds and an implied 44.8% probability.

It's hard to know the mood in the Tottenham dressing room toward their current manager. But the one place Spurs have been reliable is at home against sides currently in the bottom half of the table. They've won six of seven such matches so far and covered a -1.5 goal spread in four of them.

The only reason you're getting plus money on Spurs to cover this spread is probably because of those questions, which are likely an overreaction given Saturday's opponent.

Remember, Forest continue to struggle to bring their reliable competitiveness at home on the team bus. They've lost all five of their away matches against top-half foes by multiple goals, and they are weaker defensively now than they've been at most points this season.

Pick: Tottenham -1.5 (+123 via BetRivers)

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