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Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back This Plus-Money Prop Bet

Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back This Plus-Money Prop Bet article feature image
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Lyndsay Radnedge/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: San Jose Earthquakes goaltender Emi Ochoa.

  • Real Salt Lake hosts San Jose in Saturday’s MLS nightcap.
  • The Utah outfit is favored in this battle of these Western Conference foes.
  • Brett Pund breaks things down below and gives his top betting pick with betting value.

Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Odds

Real Salt Lake Odds -130
San Jose Odds +310
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +110) 
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Closing out Saturday’s slate in Major League Soccer, Real Salt Lake looks to build on its great season so far with a positive result at home against the San Jose Earthquakes.

Real Salt Lake enters the game in third place in the Western Conference standings, with only Los Angeles FC and New York City FC having more points on the year.

For the visitors, San Jose has really struggled to string together positive results. However, the Earthquakes have been a lot more competitive since their head-coaching change.

The odds show everyone is expecting this to be a lopsided affair, but there’s still solid value on the odds board to pick a winning ticket on the match.

Metrics Not Favoring Real Salt Lake

While it has been a solid showing up until the point in the campaign, the advanced metrics paint a different story for Real Salt Lake.

The club owns a -0.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, which is currently eighth in the Western Conference and 16th in all of the league.

One key reason for the strong position in the table has been the play at Rio Tinto Stadium, where the team is unbeaten with five wins in six games.


By The Numbers

  • +4.2 — Real Salt Lake has posted a +4.2 xGDiff at home, as opposed to a -5.1 road mark in the same mark.
  • 5 — In the first halves of games, Real Salt Lake has only scored five goals, with the Portland Timbers (four) the only team with less this season.
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San Jose Shining After Coaching Change

It has been a tale of two seasons for San Jose, which went winless in its first seven matches and only picked up three points.

After the change at head coach, the Earthquakes have turned into a difficult team to beat, dropping only two games over the last eight league outings.

The big improvement has come on defense, where San Jose went from allowing an average of 2.43 goals per tilt to 1.88 after the managerial switch.


By The Numbers

  • -1 — To add to the recent upswing, the Earthquakes have a -1 xGDiff under interim head coach Alex Covelo, which is much better than the -6.7 mark under former boss Matias Almeyda.
  • 71% — San Jose’s road fixtures have gone into halftime tied in five of seven (71%) matches.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

When looking at the results of both clubs, these sides tend to see the scoring happen after halftime. So, my best bet for the match is for the second half to have more goals than the first half at +106 odds via FanDuel.

The second halves of San Jose games have had 13 more goals compared to the opening period. Meanwhile, this same bet has cashed in the last six consecutive games for Real Salt Lake and four of six home games.

If your sportsbook doesn’t offer this play, I also like the option of backing a draw in the first half at anything with plus-money odds.

The Pick: Half with Most Goals — Second Half (+106)

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