Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Newcastle United vs. West Ham United (Saturday, April 17)
Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Jarrod Bowen, second from right, celebrates with his teammates.
- Newcastle United welcomes West Ham United to St. James' Park for Saturday's Premier League match.
- Injuries have wreaked havoc on both sides entering this important fixture in England's top flight.
- BJ Cunningham break down the contest below and explains why he's expecting plenty of goals.
Newcastle vs. West Ham Odds
|West Ham Odds||+108|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-118 / -106)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
West Ham United looks to move into third place in the Premier League table Saturday when it travels to St. James’ Park to face Newcastle United.
The Magpies, who are in 17th place in the standings, are sitting just six points above the drop zone, but were able to get their first win in more than two months last weekend with their 2-1 victory over Burnley.
Newcastle is finally starting to get healthy on offense, with Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson returning to the lineup.
An INCREDIBLE moment for Allan Saint-Maximin and Newcastle United!
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) April 11, 2021
Newcastle desperately needs more points to secure its spot in the England’s top flight next season.
On the other side, West Ham is having an absolute dream of a season, currently inside the top four and have Champions League football on its horizon. Jesse Lindgard has been an absolute sensation since joining the club on loan in January, scoring eight goals and providing three assists in only nine appearances.
The Hammers cannot afford to slip up in this match with both Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham hot on their heels for the last Champions League spot in the table.
The Magpies are finally starting to show some life toward the end of the season, as some of their key attackers are starting to get healthy. Wilson and Saint-Maximin will likely finally be on the field together for the first time in more than a month, which will be huge for Newcastle since the pair combines to create 0.69 xG per 90 minutes.
Newcastle generated 4.07 xG against Tottenham Hotspur two weeks ago, plus it created 1.44 xG versus Burnley last weekend, so things are starting to trend upward offensively for the club.
However, the Magpies have been dreadful defensively all season, allowing 1.54 xG per match that is fourth-highest total in the league. They’ve really struggled holding the top-seven teams in the league in check, allowing 20.76 xG in only then matches.
Additionally, Newcastle is going to be without starting center backs Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schär, so I think West Ham’s offense should be able to run rampant through the middle of the pitch.
The Hammers’ offense has been destroying opposing defenses for more than two months now. In their last then matches, West Ham has scored a whopping 20 goals and averaged 1.61 xG per match. Lingard is going to be up there as the signing of the season, because the Manchester United loanee is averaging 0.44 xG and 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes in his nine appearances.
— West Ham United (@WestHam) April 12, 2021
However, the defense has been a bit shaky recently, as the backline injuries are starting to mount. Starting center back Angelo Ogbonna, starting left back Aaron Cresswell and starting central midfielder Declan Rice are going to miss the match due to injury. The loss of Rice and Ogbonna has been heavily felt the last two matches, with West Ham allowing a total of 3.58 xG to Wolves and Leicester City.
West Ham conceded 1.23 xG per match, but that number will likely go up without three of its starting defenders. Therefore, I think Newcastle should be able to create more chances than expected in this match.
Betting Analysis & Pick
If the last few matches between these teams are any indication of what’s to come, this has all the makings of being a high-scoring affair. Additionally, with all of the injuries to defensive players on both clubs, it will open up a ton of opportunities for two red-hot offenses to create plenty of chances.
Since I have 2.75 goals projected for this match, I think there’s value on the total over 2.5 goals at -105 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)