Torino vs. Parma Pick: Serie A Betting Odds, Predictions for Saturday, June 20

Parma at Torino Odds, Pick

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Parma and Torino will welcome back Serie A on Saturday with a 1:30 p.m. ET showdown at the Olympic Grande Torino. It’s a match between two teams in very different positions.

Torino are in the thick of the relegation battle, with just two points separating them from the drop zone, while Parma are sitting comfortably in ninth place with an outside shot at qualifying for the 2020-21 Europa League.

Torino

Going into the break, Torino was in the worst form of any team in Serie A.

Torino didn’t manage to collect a single point in their last six games and were outscored, 19-3. Additionally, Torino have the worst home record in Serie A when it comes to expected goals — II Toro generate 0.92 expected goals per match while conceding an average of 1.80 xG.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Torino has had plenty of trouble scoring goals at home, especially against Serie A’s better teams. Il Toro have only scored three goals and allowed 12 in six home matches against the top half of the circuit.

It’s hard to imagine them creating quality chances against a solid team like Parma.

Parma

Parma has had a meteoric rise up the Italian Football ladder of the past five years. For a club that was on the brink of bankruptcy in 2015, to be in ninth place in the top division is nothing short of a miracle.

Before the world came to a halt, Parma was in decent run of form, earning 10 of a possible 21 points from their last seven matches. However, they lost the expected goals battle in those matches 10.93 to 8.70, so it will be interesting to see if Parma can assert themselves against a side that is seemingly in disarray.

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Previous Meeting 

Parma won a five-goal thriller, 3-2, against Torino in the reverse fixture back in September.

Based on the expected goals report Parma were deserving of the 3-2 victory, creating plenty of quality scoring chances against Serie A’s worst defense. I don’t think Parma will have any issues replicating that feat on Saturday.

Analysis

Based on my model, I have Parma slightly favored in this match:

• Torino projected odds: +211 (32.14% win probability)
• Parma projected odds: +146 (40.70%)
• Draw projected odds: +268 (27.16%)
• Torino xG: 1.15
• Parma xG: 1.31

It’s puzzling to me why Torino is favored in this match. Despite the break, their recent form shouldn’t warrant them being favored against a team in the top-half of the table.

Although the odds are a bit steep, I really like Parma to get at least a draw in this match, so I’ll pay the juice on Parma +0.5 goal.