Wednesday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lecce vs. Sampdoria Preview (July 1)

Sampdoria at Lecce Odds, Pick

Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

We've got ourselves an old-fashioned relegation six-pointer between Sampdoria and Lecce on Wednesday afternoon.

Lecce come into Wednesday in 18th place and one point behind Sampdoria and Genoa. A win for Lecce would see them hop out of the relegation zone, while a win for Sampdoria would put two games between them and the drop zone.

Both of these teams are in terrible form and are bleeding goals, so get ready for anything at Stadio via Del Mare on Wednesday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The first number that jumps off the page at you in this match is Lecce's horrendous defensive record. No team in Serie A comes close to matching Lecce's ineptitude in front of their own net.

The Salentians have allowed 11 more goals and conceded 19 more expected goals than any other team in the division and their defense has picked up right where it left off before the break, allowing eight goals on 6.89 xG in their two games since play resumed.

Those two matches were against Juventus and AC Milan, but considering they allowed 11 goals in their last two matches before the hiatus it's clear that Lecce's defensive woes are far from being fixed.

Lecce will be relieved to be facing an easier opponent on Wednesday, but Sampdoria are better than their record suggests. The Blucerchiati have 26 points and a -19 goal differential in 28 matches this season, but their expected goals differential sits at -6.54 and suggests they should have 10 more points on the season.

That being said, Sampdoria have not enjoyed any success since returning to action. Claudio Ranieri's side have been on the wrong side of three consecutive 2-1 decisions but the expected goals reports from those games show that Sampdoria were deserved losers in each result.

I would need a much bigger number to trust Lecce's defense with a bet, so instead I'm looking for Sampdoria to take all three points on Wednesday. And if you are looking to bet the visitors, it may make sense to split your stake between the moneyline and an alternate spread.

Lecce matches average 3.76 total goals, so if Sampdoria does win there's a good chance they do it by multiple goals, especially since Lecce will need to go for broke if they are down in the second half.