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South Korea vs Ghana Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

South Korea vs Ghana Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview article feature image
Credit:

Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Hyueng-Min Son.

  • South Korea is favored to beat Ghana on Monday in the World Cup.
  • Should you get behind them in this position?
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the fixture and gives out his best bet.

South Korea vs. Ghana Odds

Monday, Nov. 28
8 a.m. ET
FS1
South Korea Odds +145
Ghana Odds +210
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+137 / -175)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+100 / -134)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

South Korea take on Ghana in a pivotal match that could decide who gets out of Group H.

They held Uruguay to a 0-0 draw, which now puts them in a prime opportunity to get to the knockout stage with a win over Ghana. The South Koreans were very impressive in the opener and also had the second best expected goal (xG) differential during Asian World Cup Qualifying, so they should be deserving favorites in this match.

Ghana played a chaotic match with Portugal in the opener, eventually losing 3-2. The African side did not show much going forward until they went behind, which does not bode well from them in this match since they are going to have to be more aggressive if they want any chance of getting out of this group.

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South Korea Solid Despite Result

Despite it being a 0-0 final score, South Korea were actually really impressive and the better side against Uruguay on Thursday.

Uruguay 0 : 0 South Korea

▪ xG: 0.45 – 0.69
▪ xThreat: 1.38 – 0.93
▪ Possession: 55.5% – 44.5%
▪ Field Tilt: 39.4% – 60.6%
▪ Def Line Height: 43.1 – 44.6#msbot_wc pic.twitter.com/AbzbPrqqOx

— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) November 24, 2022

As you can see, South Korea won the xG battle and had field tilt of 60.6%. They did an outstanding job with their pressing and making life extremely difficult on Uruguay’s midfield, taking away a ton of easy passes for Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur, which essentially neutralized them.

South Korea have deployed a 4-4-2 in the past with Hyeung-Min Son and Hwang Hee-Chan as a striking duo, but given the personnel, it’s more likely that he will play a 4-2-3-1. 

South Korea play very direct and very aggressive. They love to get the ball moving forward at a rapid pace on the counter whether it be long balls or combination passes.

Their forwards are always prepared to make runs in behind the last line of defense and they punished defenses throughout World Cup Qualifying, averaging 2.05 xG per match. Bento allows Son a lot of freedom to roam the pitch and drop deep to receive the ball and supply it to others.

Ghana Lacking Quality Technical Ability

Until Portugal scored the opening goal, Ghana were pretty pathetic offensively. For the first half they didn’t have a touch in Portugal’s penalty area and really they weren’t close.

Ghana are the first team in the tournament to go the entire first half without a touch in the opposition box, and frankly they weren't even close:#PORGHA #FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/XLk0Rq6TSE

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 24, 2022

If you look at the rolling xG chart as well, Ghana had only created 0.13 xG before the Andre Ayew goal in the 73rd minute.

Ghana also got the field tiled on them at 80.6%, committed 11 high turnovers, and allowed Portugal to have a PPDA of 6.7. That’s not good news when you’re going up against an outstanding pressing team like South Korea.

This was the most in-flux team prior to the World Cup due to their managerial change, and the lack of chemistry has shown.

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South Korea vs. Ghana Pick

South Korea were way too impressive against a really good Uruguay team to be sitting at close to a pick’em against Ghana. If that second goal hadn’t gone in against Portugal, we’d be having a much different discussion and South Korea would most likely be an odds-on favorite.

Even throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Africa Cup of Nations, Ghana had a -1.2 xGD in 11 matches, so they really shouldn’t be even close to a pick’em against this South Korean team.

I have South Korea projected at -102, so I love the value on their draw no bet line.

The Pick: South Korea – Draw No Bet (-135) 

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