Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, March 21)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, March 21) article feature image
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Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.

  • Tottenham Hotspur looks to get back on track Sunday when it faces Aston Villa in Premier League action.
  • The Villans are likely to be without star Jack Grealish, which has caused major issues for them on the offensive side of things.
  • Kieran Darcy explains why this is a good bounce-back spot for Spurs below.

Aston Villa vs. Spurs Odds

Aston Villa Odds +190
Spurs Odds +145
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -115)
Day | Time Sunday | 3:30 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via BetMGM.

The second of Sunday’s two Premier League matches is an intriguing one, that’s for sure.

Can Tottenham Hotspur bounce back from its disastrous Europa League exit against an Aston Villa team that’s just one place and four points below its in the table?

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.


Aston Villa

Aston Villa is currently in ninth place with 41 points, four points below eighth-place Spurs. The Villans have a game in hand on Tottenham as well.

The hosts are coming off back-to-back draws — 1-1 at Newcastle last Friday and a scoreless stalemate against Wolves prior to that contest. They also lost two of their previous three matches, including a defeat at the hands of last-place Sheffield United.

It’s no coincidence that Aston Villa talisman Jack Grealish has been missing for these poor run of results over the course of the past five games.

Grealish has six goals and 10 assists in 22 league appearances. Only Harry Kane (13) and Kevin De Bruyne (11) have more assists in England’s top flight. Grealish is also second in the league in chances created with 76, with Manchester United star Bruno Fernandes (81) the lone player ahead of him.

Unfortunately for Aston Villa fans, it sounds like Grealish will also miss this game.

In terms of the underlying numbers, the Villans are right where they belong in the standings. They’re ninth in terms of xG differential (xGDiff), at +5.1 according to FBref.com.

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs have had a really rough week. They suffered a 2-1 loss against Arsenal in last Sunday’s North London derby and followed that up with a 3-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday, blowing a 2-0 lead from the first leg of the tie and getting eliminated from Europa League competition.

You want evidence of a team in turmoil?

Exhibit A: Manager Jose Mourinho ripped his players after the match:

And here’s Exhibit B via captain Hugo Lloris:

 

How will Spurs respond? Honestly, it’s hard to predict. This kind of stuff could motivate the players or do the exact opposite.

Spurs had won five consecutive matches across all competitions prior to these two defeats, including scoring four goals against both Burnley and Crystal Palace. Gareth Bale scored four of their eight goals in those two games, and it looked like he was finally emerging as the game-changing attacker Spurs thought they were re-acquiring from Real Madrid.

Tottenham enter this game in eighth place, six points behind fourth-place Chelsea in the race for the final Champions League spot. In terms of the underlying numbers, Spurs are actually lower in the table when it comes to xGDiff, sitting in 10th place at +4.3 and just below Aston Villa.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a rescheduled fixture, so it’s the first meeting between these clubs this season. And I’m going to assume that Grealish won’t be available.

Spurs will likely also be missing a key player in Son Heung-min, but they still have Kane who, in addition to leading the league in assists, is also tied for second in goals with 16, putting him one behind Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. Bale has made a big impact of late as well.

Aston Villa has scored just three goals in the last five matches without Grealish. That includes only one goal in the past three games, which were against 20th-place Sheffield United, 13th-place Wolves and 17th-place Newcastle United. And that was an own goal by Newcastle’s Ciaran Clark.

I’m backing Spurs to respond positively to this crisis and keep their hopes of UCL qualification through England’s top flight alive.

Pick: Spurs ML (+145)

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