West Ham United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: (Dec. 27)
John Walton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Jarrod Bowen.
- West Ham United takes on Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday in Premier League action.
- Jeremy Pond is expecting offense from both sides, backing both teams to score and the total to go over an alternative number.
- Get his full breakdown for the showdown featuring the Hammers and Seagulls at London Stadium below.
West Ham vs. Brighton Odds
|West Ham Odds||+132 [BET NOW]|
|Brighton Odds||+215 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+235 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-107/-117) [BET NOW]|
|Day/Time||9:15 a.m. ET|
|TV||NBCSN | fuboTV|
Things could get pretty electric in Premier League action Sunday when West Ham United hosts Brighton & Hove Albion at London Stadium.
The Hammers had been cruising along in England’s top flight before running into Chelsea, which handed them a crushing 3-0 shutout defeat in its most recent fixture. The loss moved West Ham’s record to 6-3-5 (W-D-L), pushing it down to 10th place in the standings on 21 points.
On the other side, things could not be going much worse for the Seagulls. Brighton missed a golden opportunity to steer further clear of the relegation zone, but settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw with Sheffield United.
The Seagulls are hovering just above the drop zone, sitting in 17th place with their 2-6-6 record and 10 points. Brighton must get it together if its going to save its season and move away from the bottom three on the 20-team table.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be on deck for this contest.
Manager David Moyes has to be disappointed with his side’s recent efforts, having only secured one win in its last four league outings. The convincing defeat at the hands of Chelsea might have been the Hammers’ worst effort of the campaign, where it was on the wrong side of a 2.1-0.6 expected goals margin.
Prior to that loss, West Ham secured a 2-1 win over Leeds United at Elland Road via goals from Tomáš Souček and Angelo Ogbonna. It followed that winning effort with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace.
Offensively, the Hammers have used an extremely balanced attack to scratch out results. No players has more than four goals in their respective account, with Jarrod Bowen currently the top scorer.
West Ham’s overall numbers are precisely what you’d imagine they’d be from a club sitting in the middle of the table. The Hammers sit on a modest 18.3 expected goals and mediocre 19.7 expected goals against, resulting in a subpar -1.4 xGDiff and -0.10 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Neither good nor bad, West Ham will continue to hang around this area in the standings if these figures remain relatively the same moving forward.
This might sound like me being a broken record, but I will say it again. Brighton might be the best 17th place team through 14 matches I have seen in league history.
It is absolutely shocking to me Graham Potter and his lads are just two points clear of the relegation trio when I had them pegged as a top-12 club entering the campaign. Maybe it’s been a run of bad luck; maybe it’s something else. Regardless, the Seagulls have the manpower and style of play that should have them sitting just outside the top half of the table.
Granted, Brighton has secured back-to-back draws in its last two outings. However, they should have both resulted in wins against relegation-zone sides Fulham (0-0) and the aforementioned Sheffield United.
Bottom line, the Peacocks simply need one win to get the ball rolling in its favor in my opinion. I keep going back to that Nov. 28 home stalemate with Liverpool, where they held a convincing 2.1 xG-0.5 xG edge over the Reds. That’s the performance that still has me rating them in such a favorable light.
As for Brighton’s advanced metrics, they simply do not reflect a team sitting in the bottom four of the table.
The Seagulls have generated 20.0 xGs and a stellar 14.1 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +5.9 xGDiff and +0.42 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton’s xGA is better than seven teams in the top half of the table, including top-four clubs Liverpool, Leicester City, Manchester United and Everton.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This has to be one of the most intriguing matches on the weekend card. Both sides are in dire need of all three points for their own reasons, which has me believing you won’t be seeing either sit back and let the game come to them.
That said, I am backing both teams to score as my top play. Brighton has scored at least twice in its last three road matches against West Ham across all competitions. Throw in the fact the Hammers have scored at least once in 15 of their 17 total matches, and I like my chances of hitting this wager.
I will also play the total going over the alternative number of 2.25 goals (which splits the wager between 2 and 2.5). There have been at least three goals scored in West Ham’s last five home tilts with Brighton across all competitions.
Picks: Total Over 2.25 Goals (-141) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-137)