West Bromwich Albion vs. Leeds United Tuesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: (Dec. 29)
Lee Smith – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United star Patrick Bamford.
- West Brom pulled off a shocking draw against Liverpool on the weekend at Anfield.
- The Baggies now get a crack at entertaining-side Leeds in Tuesday's Premier League match at The Hawthorns.
- Jeremy Pond gives his detailed insight on this intriguing fixture below.
West Brom vs. Leeds Odds
|West Brom Odds||+270 [BET NOW]|
|Leeds Odds||-107 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+285 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-157/+125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Clubs coming off quality results just two days ago get right back at it Tuesday when West Bromwich Albion hosts Leeds United at The Hawthorns.
The Peacocks rebounded nicely from their 6-2 blowout defeat to Manchester United with an impressive 1-0 victory over Burnley at Elland Road. It marked Leeds’ sixth win of the season in its return to England’s top flight, putting it on the cusp of cracking the top half of the table.
As for the Baggies, they scratched out 1-1 draw against league-leading Liverpool at Anfield. West Brom struck late in the second half for the equalizer, but remains bound to the relegation zone in 19th place on just eight points.
Let’s take a look at what might be in store with these sides in this contest.
Things got just a little bit brighter for new gaffer Sam Allardyce and the Baggies with that shock stalemate against the Reds. However, they must flip the entire script on their season if they’re going to have any shot of avoiding a trip back to the Championship.
West Brom’s issues are both sides of the ball, which has led to the fact it’s now winless in nine of its last 10 fixtures. Despite securing that coveted road point against Liverpool, the club was still on the wrong side of a 1.6 xG-0.5 xG margin at the final whistle.
The Baggies’ lone league win this season came on Nov. 28 via a 1-0 shutout over drop-zone neighbor Sheffield United. They were extremely lucky that day after being dominated throughout the contest, with the Blades holding a convincing 2.7 xG-1.3 xG edge in a losing effort.
West Brom’s overall figures define horrific. The Baggies boast a measly 8.9 expected goals versus a ghastly 27.9 expected goals against, generating a stunning -19.0 xGDiff and -1.27 xGDiff/90 minutes.
The only category where West Brom isn’t ranked last in the league is xGA, with defensively challenged Leeds (28.2 xGA) carrying that dubious distinction.
What’s even more shocking than the stats is the fact Sheffield United, which has better numbers across the board, is below them in the league standings.
Manager Marcelo Bielsa had to be pleased with the way his club responded following that howler of an effort against Manchester United.
The league’s worst defense (in a statistical sense at least) locked things down defensively, en route to its fifth shutout of the season and first since back-to-back clean sheets against Arsenal and Everton in late November.
Patrick Bamford continued his torrid scoring tear, recording the game’s lone goal from the spot five minutes to give him 10 goals on the season. The club’s top offensive threat continues to push toward a longshot Golden Boot, sitting just three off Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah in first place.
As pointed out several previews before, Leeds’ advanced metrics swing on a pendulum between great and downright awful.
The Peacocks have a stellar 27.5 xGs and league-worst 28.2 expected goals against, resulting in a subpar -0.7 xGDiff and -0.05 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, Leeds loves to score goals as much as it concedes them. If the Peacocks can just slightly improve on the defensive side, they could contend for a top-10 spot down the stretch.
Betting Analysis & Picks
When it comes to finding the right angle in this match, the last thing you should do is overthink things. Bottom line, Leeds is the more complete club and in much better form than West Brom has been at any point this season.
That said, I am backing the Peacocks to get the job done at The Hawthorns. Bielsa’s men are on the cusp of cracking the top half of the table, with a win in this spot getting them even close to that short-term goal.
I will also play the total going over the number as well. I honestly think both clubs see this match as one for the taking of all three points.
Picks: Leeds ML (+100) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-157)