Wednesday Champions League Picks, Predictions: 3 Bets for Today, Including Liverpool vs. Porto, Sheriff vs. Real Madrid

Wednesday Champions League Picks, Predictions: 3 Bets for Today, Including Liverpool vs. Porto, Sheriff vs. Real Madrid article feature image
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Hasan Bratic/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: RB Leipzig standout Tyler Adams.

  • Champions League odds for Wednesday are on the move, and Liverpool vs. Porto, Club Brugge vs. RB Leipzig and Sheriff vs. Real Madrid highlight our favorite bets on the card.
  • We're targeting two underdogs getting at least half a goal in regulation, and one plus-money favorite on the three-way line.
  • Get all our favorite Wednesday Champions League bets below.

Champions League action continues Wednesday, with eight more matches on the docket after a thrilling set of games took place on Tuesday’s schedule.

Soccer analysts Matthew Trebby and Avery Zimmerman unveil their best bets on the docket, with their picks coming in contests featuring Club Brugge vs. RB Leipzig, Liverpool vs. Porto and Sheriff Tiraspol vs. Real Madrid.

Check out below how our handicappers are playing these confrontations and what kind of betting value they’ve found in these interesting matchups.

Liverpool vs. Porto

Liverpool Odds -105
Porto Odds +275
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Avery Zimmerman: This is an interesting match to bet due to the circumstances surrounding it. In a normal situation, Liverpool would be a major favorite at home against Porto, but because this is a complete dead tie for the Reds, Liverpool is only a slight favorite at -105 on the three-way moneyline.

Another fascinating part of this battle is the absolute dominance Liverpool has held in the matchup in recent years. The pair has met in the Champions League five times since 2018, with Liverpool holding four wins, a draw and a whopping 16-2 score on aggregate.

The Reds have also been one of the most dominant team in UCL play thus far, maintaining a 2.01 xG/game rate and a 0.46 xGA/game clip.

Porto comes in knowing a point would be a good step toward ensuring progression into the knockout stage, but three would be massive. A final matchweek meeting with third-place Atlético Madrid would only require a draw if Porto beat Liverpool, but that won’t be assured if the Portuguese side gets a point or less.

This game is a classic case of weighing context versus the quality of teams, which is nearly impossible. As much as I’d like to back the quality of Liverpool, there’s no telling what type of intensity it’ll bring. And with Porto having all to play for, I’m going to back the the Dragões to leave Anfield with a result.

Zimmerman’s Pick: Porto +0.5 (-110)

Club Brugge vs. RB Leipzig

Club Brugge Odds +210
RB Leipzig Odds +115
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Matthew Trebby: Without looking too far into it, RB Leipzig is due this season.

Wisconsin native Jesse Marsch’s team sits seventh in the Bundesliga and has just one point from its first four games in a Champions League group that features Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain. Any hopes of Europa League action in 2022 require a win in this one against the certainly capable Club Brugge.

After losing three of its first four league games, Leipzig has just one loss in eight games but three draws as well. The Red Bulls are playing a very open style, notching more than two goals per game while conceding 11.35 expected goals against, which is far more than the likes of Bayern Munich or Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Meanwhile, Brugge has scored in every UCL game, even in its losses against Manchester City that combined to a 9-2 aggregate scoreline. They’ve notched 0.8 xG per match in the Champions League, and beat this Leipzig team back in late September in Germany.

What makes this difficult is Leipzig’s shocking 2-0 loss this past weekend against Hoffenheim. They registered just 0.21 xG and were lifeless in defeat.

Fortunately for the RB Leipzig, Brugge has won just once in its last four games in league play. There’s one team with much more quality that had what I think was a blip on the radar over the weekend.

I’ll back Leipzig moneyline in what should be a nonstop match in Belgium.

Trebby’s Pick: RB Leipzig ML (+115)

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Sheriff vs. Real Madrid

Sheriff Odds +1100
Real Madrid Odds -425
Draw +600
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Avery Zimmerman: Somehow, someway, the fifth round of matches features a pivotal tie between Real Madrid and Sheriff Tiraspol.

When these squads met in the reverse fixture, the Moldovan team pulled off one of the biggest upsets the competition has ever seen, beating Real Madrid, 2-1, in the Spanish capital from a +2800 moneyline position. That’s all while conceding a 3.21-0.35 margin on the xG numbers.

Despite the discrepancy, I’m actually going to back Sheriff on the spread. After two home games in the group stage, Sheriff has a positive xG-xGA differential (0.02) and Real Madrid only has a 0.78 differential.

Sheriff isn’t coming into this game as a minnow without any hope. It has the chance to build on its stunning results and put itself in a position to compete until the last match of the group stage. However, that likely won’t be possible without at least a point, so I expect a quality effort.

Back the Cinderella of the competition to prove its ability and battle once again.

Zimmerman’s Pick: Sheriff Tiraspol +2 (-120)

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