Manchester City vs. PSG Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: The Even-Money Parlay to Bet
Victoria Haydn/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standouts lkay Gundogan, left, and Phil Foden.
- Updated Champions League odds for Wednesday list Manchester City as a -185 favorite ($18.50 wins $10) over Paris Saint-Germain.
- These two teams are atop their Champions League group, but a win and three points here can lock up a spot in the knockout round -- and for Man City, clinch the group.
- See how Jeremy Pond is betting Man City vs. PSG on Wednesday:
PSG at Man City Odds
|Man City Odds||-185|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM, updated Wednesday at noon ET. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Global heavyweights Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain square off at Etihad Stadium on Wednesday in another huge Champions League showdown that highlights the latest round of fixtures in the European showcase.
Both juggernauts are sitting pretty in Group A of the competition, with the hosts on nine points atop the quartet. The Parisians are nipping on the Cityzens’ heels, though, parked a point behind the Premier League giants.
Manchester City enters this affair looking to avenge its 2-0 shutout defeat against PSG back in September at Parc des Princes. Oddsmakers believe the powerhouse has a good chance in doing so, with manager Pep Guardiola’s club the solid favorite at -160 odds on the three-way moneyline. PSG checks in at +400, with the draw at +310 as of writing.
Let’s take a look at this crucial matchup between these foes and see where we can find some betting value.
Man City Seeking Revenge After Loss in Paris
To say Guardiola’s side is seeking revenge entering this confrontation would be a gross understatement. The Cityzens dominated affairs the last time they met on Sept. 28 in the French capital, but couldn’t capitalize on their chances en route to the loss.
Manchester City held a 1.9-0.8 edge in expected goals in the meeting, so the club is clearly going to have unwavering confidence when PSG steps on the Etihad pitch. The Cityzens will still be without star playmaker Kevin De Bruyne, but Raheem Sterling and İlkay Gündoğan — who has stepped up nicely in De Bruyne’s absence — are just two of his teammates filling the void.
Start your week with a sensational goal! 🙌
Cancelo 🪄@sterling7 🎯#ManCitypic.twitter.com/HLzszlZM9O
— Manchester City (@ManCity) November 22, 2021
Sterling, Rodri and Bernardo Silva each scored a goal in a 3-0 victory against Everton this past weekend, which made it three wins on the bounce for Manchester City. The Cityzens are unbeaten in eight of their last nine games overall, going 6-1-2 (W-L-D) during that stretch of fixtures.
When it comes to the advanced metrics among Group A clubs, Manchester City has dominated from a statistical standpoint. The Cityzens have racked up 12.3 xG and conceded just 2.9 xGA, generating a stunning +9.4 xG differential and an even crazier +2.34 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Messi Finding Stride With Mighty PSG
Lionel Messi hasn’t had what I would describe as a magical start from an individual perspective since arriving in Paris. However, the best player of his generation made his presence felt loud and clear in the reverse fixture.
Leading 1-0 deep in the second half, Messi struck for a moment of brilliance with a beautifully placed shot in the upper left-hand corner of the goal to put Manchester City away for good. It was a world-class finish off a lovely assist from fellow star Kylian Mbappé, which you can see below. It was the top goal that week in the competition.
The Goal of the Week results are in – and it's good news for Leo Messi 🙌#UCLGOTW | @Heineken | #UCLpic.twitter.com/MlnocL2eKF
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) September 30, 2021
Since that victory, PSG has gone unbeaten in eight of its last nine games overall, putting together a 6-1-2 (W-L-D) record. That includes a 3-1 win against Nantes this past weekend, where Messi and Mbappé scored. The club was in such a groove that it hit for two unanswered goals at 1-1, despite being down a man after goalkeeper Keylor Navas was sent off following a red card.
As for the Parisians’ numbers when compared to the gaudy data their hosts have put together, they’re not even close to comparable. Instead, they’re much worse. In four UCL games, PSG has mustered just 7.6 xG and conceded a 7.9 xGA, resulting in a subpar -0.4 xGDiff and flat -0.09 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Man City vs. PSG Betting Pick
I do like Manchester City to win this match outright, but find zero value on the host side sitting at -160 odds on the three-way moneyline. That’s just way too big of a number for my palate, hence I’ve opted to take another route.
Instead, I’m going back to the well where I’ve found some success of late and that’s via the Same Game Parlay wager. This time, we’re backing both teams to score and the total staying under 5.5 goals at -110 odds on BetMGM as the top pick.
The absence of De Bruyne — and potentially Jack Grealish — for City will surely level the playing field in the middle of the pitch, thus giving PSG chances on the attack with its three-headed monster leading the charge.
And let’s face it. All it takes is a single moment of brilliance from Messi to get the Parisians on the board, which would obviously put us in a great position to hit this bet since I can’t see any way the Cityzens don’t strike for a couple of goals of their own.
If you’re looking for a little more action, target a live play on Manchester City to to clear 1.5 goals. The odds are way too high at -185 as of writing, but this is worth playing early in the first half if it dips in the neighborhood of -145 odds.
Pick: Same Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score (Yes) & Total Under 5.5 Goals (-110)
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