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Aston Villa vs. Manchester City EPL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Villans to Pull Off Upset

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City EPL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Villans to Pull Off Upset article feature image

Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ross Barkley

  • Manchester City is a big favorite over Aston Villa at Villa Park in Wednesday's Premier League action.
  • The Villans will be without star Jack Grealish again, but this could be a lookahead spot for Manchester City with this weekend's Carabao Cup on the horizon.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the match and explains why he's backing Aston Villa to cover as a live underdog.

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Odds

Aston Villa Odds +800
Manchester City Odds -286
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-134 / +108)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Manchester City continues its march to the Premier League title Wednesday afternoon. It’s opponent — Aston Villa — has mightily improved this season, holding an outside chance of qualifying for the Europa League. However, they’ll be without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish, for this match.

The Cityzens still have a chance to win the Premier League , Champions League, and the League Cup, but they’re in a bit of a sandwich spot against the Villans. They’re coming off a weekend loss against Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinal round and have the League Cup Final on Sunday, followed by the first leg of the Champions League semifinals next Wednesday.

So, with an eight-point cushion with only six matches left, we could see manager Pep Guardiola rotate his squad.

Aston Villa

Despite being in the 11th place, Aston Villa boast one of the best attacks in the Premier League. The Villans are creating 1.56 expected goals per contest, which is the fifth-best rate in the Premier League. However, they have really been missing Grealish, their do-everything playmaker, over the past couple of months.

Grealish is responsible for six goals and has 11 assists to his name. He also has the second-highest expected assists per 90 minute rate behind only Kevin de Bruyne. It’s been difficult for the Villans to create chances without Grealish in the middle of the pitch.

As you can see it’s been  pretty much night and day without Grealish in the squad, but the Villans still have a shot in this match, with Manchester City likely focused on bigger things on the horizon.

Manchester City

Manchester City’s large lead at the top is starting to shrink, as the the Cityzens have looked vulnerable over the past few weeks. After pulling off an insane 21-match win streak at the start of 2021, they Cityzens have three losses in their last eight matches.

However, lets not get things twisted because Manchester City is still one of the best teams in the world. Over the past two months, the Cityzens are averaging 2.15 xGF per match, while only allowing 0.90 xG per match, so it’s not like their form has really dipped that much.

City will have to make due without their talisman, Kevin de Bruyne, for this match. De Bruyne has been involved in 16 goals in the Premier League and has the highest expected assist rate in the league.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a massive lookahead spot for Manchester City with bigger competitions on the horizon. Since City have bigger competitions on the horizon it would not be a surprise to see a weaker lineup take on the Villans.

Considering the extenuating circumstances, I think Aston Villa is in a prime spot to pull off an upset against Manchester City. City have been vulnerable of late and Villa remain a dangerous side even without Grealish. Therefore, I am going to back Aston Villa’s spread of +1 at +138 odds.

Pick: Aston Villa +1 (+138)

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