With the World Cup just days away, everyone is focused on the big question: Who will be lifting that famous trophy at MetLife on July 19? Yes, we all know that France and Spain are the favorites, and that England has a chance with Harry Kane up top.
However, I want to look beyond the top seven countries, all of which have odds of +1000 or less. Instead, I’m looking for long shots — at +2000 or above — and this tournament could be primed for a surprise winner.
The switch from 32 to 48 teams really shakes up the World Cup. Teams will now need to win eight games, instead of seven, to win the lot, but with a 67% chance of progressing from the group stage, compared with 50% in 2022’s tournament, we have the chance to see some teams reach the knockout rounds, and from there, who knows.
Netherlands +2200 (Caesars)
The Dutch are yet to win a World Cup, having fallen short in the final on three occasions (1974, 1978 and 2010). There’s a reason they’re not amongst the favorites for this competition, and they lack the star power of the European heavyweights, but this is a squad with talent throughout.
Ronald Koeman is a solid manager, and his pragmatic style is one that could make them tough to beat. In defense, they have a blend of real talent and experience, with captain Virgil van Dijk and right-back Denzel Dumfries among the best in the world at their positions.
The midfield is solid, and Frenkie De Jong’s ability to keep possession and dictate play will be essential in high temperatures.
The only question marks are up front, with a lack of attacking talent, but Brian Brobbey has impressed for Sunderland this season, and could take over from Memphis Depay as the tournament progresses.
This is a team that went unbeaten in qualifying, giving up just four goals in eight games, and could potentially have a path of Morocco, followed by Switzerland, to reach the quarterfinals.
Colombia +4000 (DraftKings)
The Colombians tick all the boxes you want for a long shot. The odds are huge, and their squad is a nice mix of top-level experience in James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, alongside a striker in red-hot form, in Luis Suarez.
The Sporting striker has 28 goals in 32 league games this season and adds a legitimate finisher to their ranks. Suarez, much like Diaz, also works incredibly hard, and that high press is essential to what Nestor Lorenzo is trying to do with his team.
They finished third in South American qualifying and were the second-highest scoring team, ahead of the likes of Brazil. They’re looking to force teams to either play around them, and maybe steal possession, or play long, allowing the likes of Davinson Sanchez to clean up.
With electric speed, they will be able to take teams apart on the counterattack, and they have a blend of legs and experience within the team, which can help them get across the line in tough games. The ability to deal with the heat will also be a huge advantage.
Japan +6600 (BetRivers)
The Japanese are in the same group as the Netherlands, and finishing second could see them face Brazil in the Round of 32, but that’s still not a reason to swerve the Samurai Blue. Manager Hajime Moriyasu has made no bones about their aims to win this World Cup, and they have a real chance.
Since the last World Cup, this team has beaten Germany 4-1, Brazil 3-2, and got a 1-0 victory over England at Wembley back in March. Add to that an impressive qualifying campaign, in which they were the first non-host to seal a spot at the tournament, and it feels like a team who are really strong.
The team lacks true superstars, but they have a cohesive team that works incredibly hard, counter-presses exceptionally well, and, with a 3-4-2-1 formation, are set up to keep things tight at the back. They’re a fun team to watch, and with their excellent technical ability, they can cause an upset this summer.
Ecuador +10000 (bet365)
If you’re looking for a long shot to win the World Cup, you won’t find better value than Ecuador. They’ll still need a few things to go their way during the tournament, but at these odds, I’m happy to be a little hopeful of some luck.
Firstly, this is a team who are more than comfortable dealing with the sort of temperatures we’re going to see this June and July. They should easily beat Curacao, and with neither Ivory Coast nor Germany being spectacular, we could see the Ecuadorians even win Group E.
You can’t talk about this team without talking about their defense, which is stacked with top talent, with both Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie starting in the Champions League final between PSG and Arsenal. They conceded just five goals in 18 qualifying games, the best record in South America, with just three of those coming from open play and a staggering 13 clean sheets.
This is a team blessed with pace, and their transitional play is strong. They’re lacking an elite striker up front but 36-year-old Enner Valencia has 50 goals for his country, with a record of one every three games, and could be due a late career swansong. As they say, “defense wins championships,” and at these odds they’re worth a bet.
