2024 French Open Odds, Betting Picks | Kerber vs Rus, Badosa vs Boulter
(Photo by Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images via Getty Images) Pictured: Angelique Kerber.
Over to the women's draw from Roland Garros, where I have another pair of previews for the final day of the opening round.
Find picks for Angelique Kerber vs Arantxa Rus and Paula Badosa vs Katie Boulter in my Tuesday French Open predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
Tuesday French Open Predictions
Angelique Kerber (-182) vs Arantxa Rus (+152)
7 a.m. ET
This match should be a real test for just how much the slower clay conditions even things up between two players who may not be in the same conversation in terms of talent on a hard or grass court, but move things to the slower, higher bouncing clay? You have to give Rus more than a 40% chance to beat the German.
For starters, clay has never really been Kerber's jam. Her fourth-round run in Rome was in large part due to a draw that featured a horrific clay courter in Lauren Davis, Veronika Kudermetova who can't find the court with her groundstrokes right now and has won just five matches since Melbourne, and then Aliaksandra Sasnovich, who has a total of two main draw wins at WTA 250s or above.
Prior to that, Kerber's season had been underwhelming as well, even on hard courts. This isn't exactly the former world No. 1 of old.
Further, she's never been a clay courter, hitting a flatter ball and preferring lower bouncing courts. Clay courts don't provide that lower ball and Rus hits with a lot of spin, which should see her shots kick even higher up.
With Rus primarily a 125k and 250 level player these days, she'll need to utilize her surface advantage here and look to make her fellow lefty as uncomfortable as possible.
Pick: Rus ML (+152 via FanDuel)
Paula Badosa (-333) vs Katie Boulter (+250)
8:30 a.m. ET
Trusting Badosa to cover a fairly high game spread may seem like a fool's errand at the moment, but I can't stay away from fading Boulter if the spread is below five in this matchup. She's played just seven matches on clay since the beginning of 2023, the best player she's come up against has been Varvara Gracheva, and she's poorly equipped for tennis on the red dirt.
Her first serve and forehand (her only weapons) are blunted by the slower surface, her lower margin game is more likely to commit errors, her second serve is vulnerable anywhere, let alone on clay, and her backhand leaks far too many unforced errors for a surface that rewards consistency and sustainable play.
Badosa hasn't been on fire herself, but at the very least she found some form in Rome, beating a trio of young, proficient clay courters on the ascent and then was a set from upsetting Coco Gauff.
This should be a straightforward win, and with the spread at 4.5 games, it's one that can be covered by a single break each set — though I wouldn't rule a lopsided set in her favor out of the equation.
Pick: Badosa -4.5 (-110 via BetRivers)
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