2024 French Open Odds, Picks | Expert Predictions for Fernandez vs Wang, Wang vs Tomova
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Leylah Fernandez.
The second round of the French Open continues with more fascinating matches on deck!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Fernandez vs Wang and Wang vs Tomova.
Read on to find Roland Garros picks for Wednesday, May 29 and Thursday, May 30.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Open Odds, Picks
Leylah Fernandez (-275) vs Xiyu Wang (+210)
5 a.m. ET
Leylah Fernandez destroyed Jessika Ponchet 6-2, 6-0 to advance in Paris. Fernandez won 72% of her service points and didn't face a break point. The Canadian also won an impressive 56% of her return points, breaking five times.
Fernandez is just 3-4 on clay in 2024, but she does have a solid 44-37 career-record on the dirt. Fernandez plays solid lefty tennis, using good foot work to get forehands and attempting to dictate from that wing. The 21-year old has a high rally tolerance, gets consistent depth and understands point construction, knowing the right moments to employ her strong variety. She's quick, anticipates well and can turn defense into offense quickly. However, she doesn't have overwhelming power and her backhand can break down under pressure.
Xiyu Wang scraped by Zhouxuan Bai in a 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-3 victory in the first round. Wang won 57% of her service points, but was broken on six occasions. The 23 year old did win 50% of her return points, breaking nine times.
Wang is 2-4 this year on clay, though she is a strong 62-37 as a professional on the surface. Wang, when she's playing well, has a heavy lefty serve and forehand, directing play with those two shots. The Chinese plays aggressive tennis, trying to take time away from her opponents and dominating the battle of court positioning. However, as was the case against Bai, Wang plays low-margin tennis with stretches of unforced errors (51 against Bai) and doesn't move well.
Wang is not serving particularly well and she had little feel on her groundstrokes, most notably her forehand. Wang also moved poorly, looking slightly injured and taking a medical timeout in the second set.
Fernandez played excellent tennis against Ponchet, defusing the Frenchwoman's power, extending rallies and counterpunching successfully. It should be a similar formula here, as she should move Wang around the court effectively, coaxing errors out of the 23-year old.
Between Fernandez's all-around solid game, Wang's erratic play and the Chinese's injury concerns, this is a great spot for the Canadian.
Pick: Fernandez -3.5 games (-140 via BetMGM)
Xinyu Wang (-137) vs Viktoriya Tomova (+114)
5 a.m. ET, May 30
Xinyu Wang came back to defeat Jule Niemeier 0-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the first round of Paris. Wang won 52% of her service points and was broken on six occasions. The 22-year old also won 49% of her return points, breaking six times.
Wang has a 4-3 record this season on clay, with a 32-28 career-record on the surface. She has a decently-big serve and follows it up with her huge, heavy forehand in order to dictate baseline play. The Chinese positions herself offensively on the court, playing aggressive tennis when she can and utilizing a strong drop shot to keep her opponents uncomfortable. However, Wang does't move particularly well and her backhand can leak errors. She's generally a streaky player.
Viktoriya Tomova upset Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3, 7-6(5) to kick off her Roland Garros campaign. Tomova won 61% of her service points and was broken three times. In addition, the Bulgarian won 49% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Tomova is 7-6 on clay in 2024 and has a strong 278-176 professional-mark on the dirt. Tomova's court coverage, fitness and rally tolerance are incredible, with the 29 year-old getting excellent consistent depth. Tomova has a high tennis IQ, spreading the court well and placing the ball effectively with her heavy forehand. In addition, the Bulgarian's variety is superb, keeping her opponents off-balance. Tomova does lack power and her backhand is less consistent, though.
While Wang took down Tomova in Madrid this year, she was the inferior player, saving 10 match points. Tomova is more adept on clay. While Wang's overall Elo is higher than Tomova's, the Bulgarian's clay Elo is 67.8 points higher than Wang's.
Tomova should be able to extend rallies and test Wang's mediocre rally tolerance. Tomova also has the court-craft and placement to keep the ball on Wang's backhand, while maintaining the footwork to hide her own weaker backhand.
And the 29-year old has the speed and defensive skills to neutralize Wang's attacking groundstrokes, including her drop shots and the counterpunching ability to effectively turn points around.
In addition, Tomova should make this match physical, which favors the Bulgarian.
Pick: Tomova ML (+114 via FanDuel)
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