2024 French Open Picks, Odds | Expert Predictions for Avanesyan vs Zhu, Kasatkina vs Frech
(Photo by Robert Prange/Getty Images) Pictured: Daria Kasatkina.
The French Open first round continues with more exciting women's matches!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Avanesyan vs Zhu and Kasatkina vs Frech.
Read on to find Roland Garros picks for Tuesday, May 28.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Open Odds, Picks
Elina Avanesyan (-245) vs Lin Zhu (+198)
5 a.m. ET
Elina Avanesyan retired with a leg ailment when losing 6-3, 4-6, 0-4 to Camila Osorio in her Rabat (clay) opener. Avanesyan won only 44% of her service points and was broken seven times. The 21-year-old did win an impressive 52% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
While Avanesyan is just 2-4 on clay this year, she has a strong 121-61 career mark on the surface. Avanesyan's control over her groundstrokes is superb, placing the ball perfectly while maintaining a high rally tolerance. The Russian is an excellent mover, anticipating and counterpunching successfully. And she has a high tennis IQ, spreading the court, utilizing successful variety and understanding shot selection. With that said, the world No. 69 lacks power to her game.
Lin Zhu also played in Rabat, falling 6-4, 0-6, 2-6 to Yafan Wang in the first round. Zhu struggled on serve, only winning 51% of her service points and getting broken on six occasions. And the Chinese won just 38% of her return points and broke twice.
Zhu is 0-4 this season on the dirt, with a poor 26-30 career record on clay. Zhu doesn't do anything spectacularly well, but she's a solid player. The world No. 58 hits her spots on serve and has decent power from the ground. However, clay movement is an issue for Zhu and she doesn't play with much topspin. In addition, she has a hard time hitting through the clay, leading to more unforced errors, and she lacks variety.
Interestingly enough, while Zhu actually has the higher overall Elo, Avanesyan's clay Elo is 312.6 points above the Chinese's, showing the Russian's clay-court advantage.
Avanesyan's consistency, defense and counterpunching are much higher on clay than Zhu's, who struggles to maintain consistency, sometimes bailing out of rallies with poor errors.
Avanesyan has more fluid movement and much better variety compared to the Zhu, who struggles during the dynamic, all-court points that clay provides.
And while Avanesyan had the injury scare against Osorio, that seemed more precautionary than anything else.
Pick: Zhu to not win a set (+102 via FanDuel)
Daria Kasatkina (-345) vs Magdalena Frech (+270)
9 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina last competed in Rome (clay), losing 3-6, 3-6 to Naomi Osaka in the third round. Kasatkina only won 48% of her service points and was broken on five occasions. The Russian also won just 40% of her return points, breaking twice.
Kasatkina, a former Roland Garros semifinalist, is 7-3 on clay this season and an impressive 130-54 as a professional. Kasatkina spreads the court well, with perfect placement, excellent rally tolerance and superb consistent depth. The world No. 11 has good variety and excellent foot speed, defending and counterpunching at a high level. She has a high tennis IQ and understands point construction. The problem for Kasatkina is her lack of power, leading to massive issues when opponents can reliably crush her weaker shots, like Osaka did.
Magdalena Frech most recently made the made the second round of Strasbourg (clay) through qualifying, but fell 7-5, 1-6, 0-6 to Marketa Vondrousova. Frech won just 32% of her second serves, getting broken six times. In addition, the Pole won just 24% of her first-serve returns, breaking twice.
Frech has a 6-5 record on clay in 2024, with a solid 158-106 career record on the dirt. The world No. 54 spreads the court well and has good variety, using her slices particularly well. She anticipates where her opponents are hitting effectively and gets a lot of balls back. But, while Frech hits her spots on serve, she's still a bit underpowered both in her service and from the ground. Frech struggles to hit through her opponents, instead relying on court craft and guile.
Kasatkina is a significantly better clay player and can match, and out-do, Frech's strengths.
The Russian is just as consistent as Frech from the ground, but has more offensive weapons at her disposal, as her forehand should be the biggest weapon on the court.
Kasatkina has the speed to defend against Frech's ground game and her variety, while employing better variety herself. There's nothing the Pole can do to hurt Kasatkina out there.
Finally, Kasatkina's Elo rating is 173.3 points higher than Frech's and her clay Elo is 202.4 points above the Pole's.
Pick: Frech to not win a set (-120 via FanDuel)
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