2024 French Open Picks, Odds | Expert Predictions for Krueger vs Korpatsch, Sabalenka vs Andreeva
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka.
The French Open's first round is coming to a close but we still have plenty of exciting women's matches on deck!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Krueger vs Korpatsch and Sabalenka vs Andreeva.
Read on to find French Open picks for Tuesday, May 28.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.'
French Open Open Odds, Picks
Ashlyn Krueger (-450) vs Tamara Korpatsch (+310)
5 a.m. ET
Ashlyn Krueger last competed in Strasbourg (clay), losing in the final qualifying round to Yulia Putintseva, 1-6, 6-0, 3-6. Krueger won only 46% of her service points, getting broken on six occasions. The American did win 50% of her return points, breaking five times.
Krueger, this year, is 6-5 on the dirt, with a 30-22 professional-record on clay. Krueger plays aggressive tennis, attempting to take time away from her opponents and dominating from the baseline. This is particularly the case from her forehand wing. The 20 year-old has a fairly powerful serve, as well. Krueger doesn't have great variety nor does she play with much margin, however, and her backhand can break down. In addition, Krueger is a bit inexperienced on clay, with her point construction and movement lacking on the dirt.
Tamara Korpatsch has been out with a back ailment, but she did play in Charleston (green clay) this clay season, falling 4-6, 6-3, 2-6 to Daria Saville in the first round. Korpatsch won only 48% of her service points and was broken seven times. The 29 year-old did win 46% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
While Korpatsch is 0-1 on clay this season, she has an impressive 238-123 career-mark on the surface. Korpatsch doesn't have much power, but understands how to play clay-court tennis in terms of her point construction, patience and rally tolerance. She defends and counterpunches successfully, utilizing excellent variety. Korpatsch spreads the court well, hitting with good precision and consistent depth. However, Korpatsch is a bit underpowered, struggling to finish points.
While Krueger has the higher overall Elo rating, Korpatsch's clay Elo is actually 26.6 points higher than the American's.
And, though the 20 year-old has much more power than Korpatsch, she doesn't have the fluid clay-court movement and understanding of point construction, including shot selection, on the surface that Korpatsch has.
Korpatsch's variety is better than Krueger's and she should be able to keep shots out of the American's strike zone and extend rallies, baiting Krueger into overhitting.
This match should be closer than the odds indicate.
Pick: Over 19.5 games (-135 via BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka (-3500) vs Erika Andreeva (+1280)
10 a.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka last played in Rome (clay) where she lost in the final 2-6, 3-6 to World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Sabalenka won just 50% of her service points and was broken four times. The World No. 2 only won 32% of her return points, failing to break.
Sabalenka is an impressive 11-3 this year on the dirt, with a 79-46 professional-record on clay. Sabalenka typically has a huge first serve, landing in the top 10 in aces, service points won and service games won in 2024. Sabalenka has extreme power from both wings, but particularly her forehand. She positions herself offensively, taking time away from her opponents. The Belarusian has done a better job of incorporating variety into her game, particularly her drop shot, recently.
And while Sabalenka used to be more erratic, with time she's become more consistent.
Erika Andreeva competed last in Strasbourg, qualifying but falling in the fist round 2-6, 2-6 to Fiona Ferro. Andreeva won only 45% of her service points, getting broken five times. The Russian won just 34% of her return points, breaking once.
Andreeva is 6-5 in 2024 on clay, with a strong 77-41 career-mark on the dirt. The 19 year-old is solid from the baseline with good movement and anticipation. Andreeva understands point construction and can hit into the openings she creates, particularly with her forehand. However, the Russian is underpowered against more powerful opposition in all aspects of her game. Andreeva'a groundstrokes also don't make much of an impact from the ground.
Sabalenka should annihilate Andreeva. The Belarusian has a much bigger serve, so Andreeva should struggle to find opportunities on return. In addition, Sabalenka should be aggressive on return, taking advantage of Andreeva's weaker serve.
The World No. 2 should be the one directing baseline play, keeping Andreeva on the move and taking advantage of anything that the 19 year-old leaves short. There's nothing Andreeva can do to hurt Sabalenka during rallies.
Finally, Sabalenka's Elo rating is 401.2 points higher than Andreeva's and her clay Elo is 472.4 points above the Russian's.
Pick: Under 17.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
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