2024 French Open Picks, Odds | Expert Predictions for Pavlyuchenkova vs Bogdan, Kasatkina vs Stearns
Photo by Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Daria Kasatkina
The second round of the French Open is coming to a close with more exciting showdowns!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's matchups — Pavlyuchenkova vs Bogdan and Kasatkina vs Stearns.
Read on to find Roland Garros picks for Thursday, May 30.
French Open Open Odds, Picks
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-225) vs Ana Bogdan (+175)
9 a.m. ET
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova dismissed Panna Udvardy 6-3, 6-4 to kick off her Roland Garros campaign. Pavlyuchenkova won 56% of her service points, getting broken on three occasions. The 32 year-old did win 53% of her return points, breaking five times.
While Pavlyuchenkova has a 3-4 record on clay this season, the former French Open finalist has a solid 115-84 professional-record on the surface. As evidenced by her 34 winners versus 31 unforced errors against Udvardy, Pavlyuchenkova likes to step up and play aggressive tennis, putting her opponents on defense. The Russian's forehand is particularly strong, although Pavlyuchenkova can dictate from both wings. She hits with fairly strong controlled aggression, although her rally tolerance and placement can dip.
Ana Bogdan defeated Elsa Jacquemot 6-1, 6-3 in the first round. Bogdan won 69% of her service points and was only broken once. Not only that, she also won 53% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Bogdan is now 4-6 in 2024 on the dirt, but has a strong 187-108 record on clay for her career. The Romanian plays solid tennis from both wings and hits angled shots at a high level, particularly with her backhand. She has a high tennis IQ, constructing points effectively and can also hit with power into openings. To add, the 31 year-old's defense and counterpunching are lacking though, and lacks overwhelming power.
Pavlyuchenkova leads the head to head 3-0, having never lost more than four games in a match, for a reason. She has the power game to make Bogdan miserable,
The Russian doesn't allow Bogdan to construct points on her terms, using her angles, and creating openings for herself. Instead, Pavlyuchenkova's controlled aggression constantly forces Bogdan on the defensive. Bogdan then becomes reactive, as opposed to proactive, during rallies.
And, the Romanian is a much worse player when having to defend and counterpunch constantly, as she's a bit stiff out there, not the most dynamic mover, and she struggles to turn defense into offense.
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova -3.5 games (-125 via BetMGM)
Daria Kasatkina (-255) vs Peyton Stearns (+205)
11 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina defeated Magdalena Frech 7-5, 6-1 to advance to the 2nd round. Kasatkina won 63% of her return points and was broken twice. The Russian also won 53% of her return points, breaking six times.
Kasatkina has an 8-3 record on clay in 2024, with a 131-54 mark as a professional. Kasatkina dictates play, not through her power, but through her placement. From both wings, although especially her forehand, she hits into precise targets, spreading the court beautifully. She has a high tennis IQ and utilizes excellent variety, especially her slices and drop shots, to keep her opponents off-balance. However, she struggles to maintain her game against elite power.
Peyton Stearns took down Lucija Ciric Bagaric 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(6) to reach the 2nd round of Roland Garros. Stearns won just 53% of her service points, getting broken 12 times. The American did win 51% of her return points, breaking on nine occasions.
Stearns is now 10-4 on clay this year, with a WTA title last week in Rabat. As a professional, Stearns is 48-28 on the dirt. The American has a decently-powerful serve and a well-placed forehand, which allows her to construct points well when she's not frustrated. She is less consistent with her backhand, though. In addition, when playing excellent defenders, Stearns can press and over-hit from the ground.
Stearns has played a lot of tennis lately. She went 7-5 in the third or later in three matches since the start of Rabat, including a physical first-round encounter in Paris where she seemed like she was starting to wear down.
Now, she's facing an elite baseline player in Kasatkina who is quick, can extend rallies and effectively counterpunch. Kasatkina can use her variety to keep Stearns on the move, preventing her from gaining a baseline rhythm.
The Russian's superb placement should keep the ball on Stearns' backhand, the weakest shot on the court.
This has been a successful matchup for Kasatkina in the past, as she's won 6/7 sets between the two, including their meeting here last year.
Add fatigue into the mix and this is a slam-dunk matchup for Kasatkina.
Pick: Stearns to NOT win a set (+100 via FanDuel)
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