Alexei Popyrin vs. Hugo Gaston Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Preview (June 28)

Alexei Popyrin vs. Hugo Gaston Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Preview (June 28) article feature image

John Berry/Getty. Pictured: Hugo Gaston.

  • Alexei Popyrin is favored to beat Hugo Gaston at Wimbledon.
  • Luke Holmberg believes there's value to be found in the match.
  • Read on for his analysis of the first round meeting.

Popyrin vs. Gaston Odds

Popyrin Odds-192
Gaston Odds+158
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Alexei Popyrin and Hugo Gaston face off for the first time at the tour level at Wimbledon on Tuesday, but for the second time in two weeks.

Two young players who have quite different play styles will look to turn their relatively disappointing years around.

In a situation that we don't often get to see, let's break down where to find value.

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A Rematch Many Might Not Know About

This duo faced off at the Hurlingham classic last week in an exhibition style event.

Gaston sent Popyrin swiftly off the court with lots of problems to think about. Dismissing of his opponent in a routine 6-4 6-2 victory, Gaston will be heading into Wimbledon with some confidence.

How much does this recent triumph tell us about their upcoming matchup?

Popyrin's Experience

In Popyrin's last ATP tournament before Wimbledon, he fell in the Ilkley challenger qualifiers to Gijs Brouwer 4-6 2-6.

He then obtained entry into the main draw by way of a lucky loser and found himself in the quarterfinals against a similar opponent, Brouwer again. However, this time was a completely different story. He handed Brouwer a 6-0 7-5 defeat, controlling the match from start to finish.

How can such differing score lines occur in the same week?

We could chalk it up to the mental game, with lack of focus from the original winner and eyes set on revenge for the loser, but it is hard to say confidently.

Matchup of Opposing Styles

Popyrin is a tall player with a massive serve whereas Gaston stands below six feet and relies on his tremendous shot making, movement and world-class drop shots.

The Aussie likes to rely on his serve and forehand with his backhand being a shot he looks to avoid. Pleasantly for Gaston, he can look to target that backhand, using his lefty advantage.

Popyrin holds a career 14-22 record against lefties, which shows that they have been able to find ways to win more often than not.

Gaston plays in an extremely unorthodox way, most notably throwing in drop shots at a very high rate. Once again, this style of play matches perfectly with Popyrin as his movement is subpar and he prefers to find a rhythm in his forehand.

Betting Value

Even though Popyrin has a better record on the year, he is only 3-10 in ATP main draw play compared to Gaston who is 8-11.

Although Gaston's record is nothing to boast about, he has clearly done better against better competition on the bigger stage in 2022.

Despite the possible mental challenges of playing last week, I believe this matchup in style is too good to not back Gaston again.

Even if he does not leave with the win, I strongly expect him to make life difficult for Popyrin, pushing him to the brink.

Trust the talented Gaston to show up on the big stage as he did at the French Open.

Pick: Gaston +1.5 Sets (-105)

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