ATP Gstaad Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect Matteo Berrettini, Nicolas Jarry to Thrive in Altitude (July 22)
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Matteo Berrettini.
As the quarterfinals begin on Friday, there will be plenty of high-quality matches and a couple spots to take advantage of the lines.
Many of the remaining players thrive in the elevation in Gstaad and will look to forge ahead to the semifinals.
Let’s find out where the value lies in the Swiss Alps.
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Matteo Berrettini (-380) vs. Pedro Martinez (+290)
6:00 a.m. ET
Matteo Berrettini showed no signs of weakness in his return to tennis. After an injury absence, he reappeared in the grass season and has not lost a match. Currently on a 10-match winning streak, his post-Covid return and transition to clay went better than most would have expected.
In addition to his current win streak, Berrettini is undefeated in Gstaad. He earned his first ATP title there in 2018 and has taken a liking to the altitude, getting his serve and forehand to dictate with extreme bounce.
Pedro Martinez did well to fight through a tough match against Elias Ymer. Martinez has had a disappointing year by his standards and is 11-10 on clay — his favorite surface.
Although Martinez is very solid on the clay, he likely won’t have an answer to Berrettini’s weapons. With three titles on the surface in his career, Berrettini is always a threat for the title and is even more so in the Gstaad altitude.
Martinez plays great defense, but playing defense against Berrettini’s serve and forehand is a whole different ask. Trust the Italian to dictate and don’t expect him to face any real problems.
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Albert Ramos Vinolas (-124) vs. Nicolas Jarry (-102)
5:00 a.m. ET
Albert Ramos Vinolas has taken a liking to the altitude — he has an 8-2 record in Gstaad and won the title here in 2019. Ramos Vinolas has become one of the most consistent clay court tennis players over the years and consistently puts up strong fights against any opponent on this surface.
Nicolas Jarry also loves the altitude. With a cannon serve he has found his best results in high-elevation tournaments. With a 2-1 head-to-head record against Vinolas — including one match in similar conditions in Sao Paolo — Jarry will like his chances.
Ramos Vinolas handled big server Dominic Stephan Stricker well for the most part. With a slight drop in level while serving to stay in the second set, he recovered well winning six straight games in the third set. With his excellent depth on his groundstrokes, if Ramos Vinolas can manage to get into a rally with the big servers, he becomes the favorite.
However, Jarry has served extremely well this week. Expect his serve to continue to dominate in the altitude. He’ll find a way to win.
Pick: Jarry ML (-102 via FanDuel)