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ATP Hamburg and Gstaad Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect Carlos Alcaraz, Matteo Berrettini to Emerge Victorious (July 24)

ATP Hamburg and Gstaad Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect Carlos Alcaraz, Matteo Berrettini to Emerge Victorious (July 24) article feature image

Shi Tang/Getty. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz.

We have a pair of finals matchups that will be fascinating to watch in both Hamburg and Gstaad.

In Hamburg, all eyes will be on star Carlos Alcaraz as he takes on first-time finalist Lorenzo Musetti in a battle of a 19- and 20-year-old.

Over in Gstaad, we’ll see two former champions and two seeds in a big-hitting showdown as Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini face off.

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Carlos Alcaraz (-600) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+400)

9:00 a.m. ET

Alcaraz arrived as the favorite to win Hamburg and will look to finish the job on Sunday. Meanwhile, Musetti has done a wonderful job fighting through a tricky draw to arrive in his first ATP final.

Alcaraz started off his tournament with a scare against Nicola Kuhn and needed a third set tiebreaker to reach the second round. Finding his form on clay once again, Alcaraz came through his next three matches in straight sets.

In whatever situation he finds himself in, Alcaraz’s mental fortitude is world-class. He lives for the tense moments and seems to thrive in them at every possible opportunity. Although Musetti has done well to reach the final, he tends to get tight in big moments. Turning a 5-0 set lead into a close call against Francisco Cerundolo, as well as failing to serve out the match in the second shows he can falter when needed most.

Musetti has a well-rounded game, but will lack the big factor needed to trouble Alcaraz. With Alcaraz’s defense and deep arsenal of shots, he should have no problem finding his way through a likely nervous first-time finalist.

Trust Alcaraz to breeze through Musetti.

Pick: Under 20.5 Games (-130 via FanDuel)

Casper Ruud (-120) vs. Matteo Berrettini (-102)

5:30 a.m. ET

Both players came through their semifinal matchups in dominating fashion. Casper Ruud dropped just two games to Ramos Vinolas while Berrettini limited Dominic Thiem to five.

Ruud is the defending champion in Gstaad, where he has a 7-0 record and has dropped just one set. Ruud dominates the clay courts with a massive serve and forehand combination. Consistently putting his opponents on their back foot, Ruud has been able to control points and hit through all levels of competition. Playing in the Swiss Alps with higher elevation allows his shots to fly through the court even quicker and exploit his opponent’s defense.

Berrettini is also undefeated his Gstaad. He dropped his first set here against Martinez in the quarterfinals and had to come back from a set and 1-5 down in the second set tiebreak to keep his tournament alive. After rattling off six straight points to win the tiebreak, Berrettini has not looked back. Also similar to Ruud, Berrettini hits a huge serve and forehand which is aided by the altitude.

Berrettini and Ruud are 2-2 when going head-to-head, though Ruud is 2-1 on clay. Berrettini won the matchup in Madrid, which has conditions most similar to Gstaad.

In what is sure to be a high-quality final consisting of plenty of winners, I expect Berrettini to find ways through Ruud as he possesses a bit more power and tends to play the bigger moments with more confidence.

Pick: Berrettini ML (-102 via FanDuel)

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