ATP London Odds, Picks, Analysis: Best Bets for First Round Matches from London (June 14)
Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Jenson Brooksby
It’s week two of the grass season and the stakes have been raised a bit with the men playing a pair of 500 events in Halle and London.
We’re going to jump ahead to Tuesday and look at a pair of first-round matchups that appear to have value in the betting markets.
Let’s get to it!
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Andy Murray (-190) vs. Lorenzo Sonego (+145)
Editor’s Note: This match was cancelled due to Murray’s withdrawal from the event.
Let’s start with a great spot to back an underdog to win outright. Lorenzo Sonego takes on veteran and grass-court aficionado Andy Murray in his opening match at Queen’s Club and there are a few reasons to like this moneyline.
First, Murray is coming off back-to-back long weeks. After making the semifinals of the Surbiton Challenger and the final in Stuttgart, Murray is set to put his body to the test with a third consecutive tournament. At his age, and with his hip issues, there is more than enough reason to question if he’ll be able to keep this form up from a physical standpoint. In fact, those same hip issues flared up in his final against Matteo Berrettini, only adding to the uncertainty.
Secondly, let’s take a look at his wins from the 250-level event in Germany. The first was against a Challenger Tour player in Chris O’Connell, the second against the mercurial and clearly annoyed Alexander Bublik. Next, he took down Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has struggled his whole career at the top level on grass (his career break rate is below 15%) and then bested Nick Kyrgios in the semis. Keep in mind, Kyrgios was visibly irritated in his quarterfinal, then again in the semi and received both a point and game penalty in the second set.
All told, the wins look much better on paper.
Finally, when looking to fade someone like Murray in a spot like this, it’s important to pick someone who’s capable on the surface. Sonego fits that bill with his massive serve, strong forehand, athleticism, form and experience. He has a title on the grass, made a final last year, reached the second round of Wimbledon and statistically his hold plus break percentage has jumped to 111% this season, despite a loss to Berrettini.
While there’s an outside chance Murray retires, it’s well worth fading him in this spot.
Pick: Sonego ML (+145 via DraftKings)
Jenson Brooksby (-190) vs. Filip Krajinovic(+145)
9:50 a.m. ET
In another Tuesday match, American Jenson Brooksby looks to get back on the right track against Filip Krajinovic.
Brooksby has a great shot considering the matchup against Krajinovic. While Brooksby may not have the most potent serve, it does play up on the grass and no one has ever accused Krajinovic of being an elite (or even a decent) returner.
The slices, the ability to keep the ball low and the tactics needed on grass all favor the American by a wide margin and his return game is capable of ensuring he wins by the break needed to cover the spread.
Further, the problems he had against Hugo Gaston a week ago aren’t likely to be repeated in this one. Krajinovic doesn’t have the rally tolerance, athleticism or variety of the Frenchman that immensely frustrated Brooksby as Gaston managed to best him from a set down.
With Brooksby winning nearly 75% of first serve points on grass over the past 52 weeks — over 50% behind his second serve and holding about 85% of the time — plus the massive edge he has stylistically and on return, this is a terrific bounce-back spot for him.
Pick: Brooksby -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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