ATP Naples Picks, Predictions: Carballes Baena Will Challenge Berrettini Once Again (October 20)

After a rough start, ATP Naples has provided plenty of exciting hard-court matchups throughout the week.

I've found two matches on Thursday's order of play where value has presented itself.

Read on for my odds analysis and prediction!

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

Matteo Berrettini (-650) vs. Roberto Carballes Baena(+400)

7:30 a.m. ET

Matteo Berrettini had a bye in to the round of 16. Berrettini played in Florence last week, falling to this week's opponent, Roberto Carballes Baena, 7-5, 6-7(5), 5-7.

While he hit 13 aces, Berrettini only won 38% of his second-serve points and was broken five times. However, Berrettini did break Carballes Baena's serve on five occasions.

He has a strong 149-86 record as a professional on hard courts, backed by a massive first serve that he places well and a heavy forehand that is key for him to control the baseline. The Italian's backhand slice also cuts through the court nicely.

However, Berrettini's control over his groundstrokes has declined recently and his backhand is becoming a greater liability.

Roberto Carballes Baena defused Nicolas Jarry's power in the first round, defeating the Chilean 6-4, 6-4. Carballes Baena held the big-serving Jarry to just 64% of his service points won, including winning 54% of Jarry's second-serve points.

Carballes Baena is known for his clay-court play, and is just 38-52 in his career on hard courts. But, Carballes Baena has developed a better attacking game in 2022, utilizing his forehand as a weapon more frequently and with success.

Based on last week's matchup, there's no reason for Berrettini to be a -650 favorite. Carballes Baena can defuse Berrettini's power and frustrate the Italian with his consistent depth. Berrettini will overhit on his groundstrokes and spray unforced errors.

Carballes Baena has the rally tolerance and movement to hang in rallies until he can target Berrettini's backhand, forcing errors and short balls from that wing.

Take the spread.

Pick: Carballes Baena +4.5 Games (-105 via BetMGM)

Daniel Galan (-115) vs. Nuno Borges (-110)

9:30 a.m. ET

Daniel Galan took advantage of a wayward Bernabe Zapata Miralles, defeating the Spaniard 6-4, 6-4 in the first round. Galan won 69% of his first-serve points and 58% of the points on his second serve.

Galan, who made the third round of the US Open this season, is still much more comfortable on clay courts than hard courts. He has a 59% career-winning percentage on clay versus 52% on hard. Galan has a big first serve and tries to be aggressive in rallies, especially with his forehand. However, his backhand is prone to break down and he becomes inconsistent under pressure.

Nuno Borges beat Albert Ramos 7-5, 7-6(5) to kick off his Naples campaign. Borges won 70% of his first serves, serving at 69% first serves into play, and 56% of his second serves. In addition, the Portuguese won 53% of his second-serve returns and broke on three occasions.

He is now an impressive 111-42 on hard courts as a professional. Borges has a strong first serve and dominates play with his forehand, utilizing excellent controlled aggression. While Borges' backhand used to be a weakness, he's become much more solid from that wing this season.

Neither player has particularly good variety, so this will be a slugfest from the baseline. Borges is better defensively compared to Galan. The Colombian will be uncomfortable in defensive positions on the court, especially with the ball on Borges' forehand.

Borges will utilize his forehand to pin Galan in his backhand corner and the he will struggle to neutralize rallies from this position. However, I trust Borges' backhand to hold up when Galan tries to do the same to him. Overall, Borges' baseline game is more steady than Galan's.

And if the match is close, the Portuguese is much more reliable mentally than Galan.

Pick: Borges ML (-110 via BetMGM)