ATP Newport and Bastad Finals Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect a Pair of Thrilling, Lengthy Finals (July 17)
(Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images) Pictured: Francisco Cerundolo.
Welcome to the Finals!
Four players remain across both Bastad and Newport and two will be looking to lift the trophy tomorrow.
We get an all-Argentine final in Bastad after both Francisco Cerundolo and Sebastien Baez turned in impressive showings as underdogs. Baez owns a 2-1 head-to-head record and holds one ATP title compared to none for Cerundolo — both have a runner-up finish.
In the U.S., we get to see Maxime Cressy, who is competing in his third final of the year, go against Alexander Bublik. With their big serves and the help of the grass courts, this is set to be a serve-dominated match where one single break could be the difference.
Let’s dive in to where I believe we can take advantage of the lines.
Match times are subject to change. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.
Sebastien Baez (-194) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (+158)
8:00 a.m. ET
These two Argentines have done nothing but impress this week. Both have dropped only one set and both have come through the fiercest of competition.
Cerundolo took down Casper Ruud in the second round and earned his first top-10 victory. This will be Cerundolo’s second ATP final. In his first, he received a thrashing from Diego Schwartzman, but no fault to him as it was his eighth match of the week after surviving five three setters.
As he said himself, Schwartzman is quite the difficult opponent to play after a long week of tiring matches. Now, Cerundolo will look to lift his first trophy against another fellow Argentine in Bastad.
Baez found his way through a marathon match with Dominic Thiem and then proceeded to hand Andrey Rublev a straight set defeat in dominating fashion.
Baez has been locked in all week. Limiting his unforced errors to a ruthlessly low number, Baez has forced his opponents to play near-perfect points to find their way through him. Additionally, Baez has found remarkable precision and aggression when his opponents provide him with a short ball. His combination of defense and offense has given his opponents nightmares all week.
These two players are playing their top tennis and we should be in for a battle. Nerves often creep through in a final and Baez should have the mental edge as he holds the head-to-head lead and already has a final victory to his name.
Nonetheless, Cerundolo has been playing impressive tennis in recent times and I expect that to continue.
We should be in for a remarkable final.
Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-125 via FanDuel)
Alexander Bublik (-112) vs. Maxime Cressy (-104)
2:30 p.m. ET
In a matchup of big servers with unique game styles, we should be in for some fireworks.
Cressy is appearing in his third final of the year, though he failed to win the previous two. He has faced stiff competition in Rafael Nadal and Taylor Fritz and pushed them to the brink. With Bublik on the other side of the net — odds wise — this will be his most winnable final match thus far.
Cressy will be facing a huge server for the third consecutive round. After handling Steve Johnson and John Isner, both in three sets, Cressy will look to do the same against Bublik. Cressy has served well all week and kept extreme pressure on his opponents as he continuously looks to get to the net.
Bublik won his first career title in Montpellier earlier this year in an impressive showing over Alexander Zverev and looks as focused as ever this week in hopes of winning his second.
Bublik has found his way through two tremendous baseliners and was able to consistently put the pressure on in rallies. Kubler has looked like a top-20 player in recent times from the ground and was able to implement his unique game and arrive here in the final.
With big serving on the way and nerves sure to be present in both players, this match should feature a tiebreak or two and it would not be surprising to see a third set.
Trust both players to take care of their service games and give the fans a worthwhile final.
Pick: Over 23.5 Games (-115)
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